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    2022年盛夏山西降水异常偏多的环流特征及海温影响

    Atmospheric circulation characteristics and impacts of sea surface temperature on abnormal precipitation in Shanxi during midsummer 2022

    • 摘要: 在全球变暖背景下,深入认识气候异常特征及其成因对于短期气候预测和地区防灾减灾具有重要科学意义。基于1980—2022年山西省108气象观测站降水月数据、NCEP/NCAR大气环流和NOAA海温资料以及国家气候中心整编的130项气候系统指数,对2022年盛夏山西降水异常偏多的环流特征及海温影响因子进行了分析。结果表明:2022年盛夏,(1)山西省平均降水量为320 mm,较常年同期偏多49%,为1980年以来历史同期第二多,局地降水量偏多1倍以上;降水空间分布以EOF1模态为主导,同时也表现出EOF2模态特征。(2)中高纬度地区乌拉尔山阻塞高压和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压持续发展,贝加尔湖低压槽异常活跃,同时西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西偏北,中高纬南下冷空气与副高外围暖湿气流以及较强的水汽输送在山西交汇,充足的动力与水汽条件导致山西降水异常偏多。(3)La Ni?a事件持续发展、热带印度洋偶极子负位相异常偏强以及黑潮区海温异常偏暖,通过遥相关调制EU波列,影响中高纬和副热带大气环流的强度及位置,导致2022年盛夏山西降水异常分布。

       

      Abstract: Under global warming, understanding climate anomalies and their drivers remains essential for improving short-term climate forecasting and regional disaster mitigation. This study analyzes circulation characteristics and sea surface temperature (SST) influences on abnormal midsummer precipitation in Shanxi during 2022 using observational data from 108 meteorological stations in Shanxi, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NOAA SST datasets, and 130 climate indices from China's National Climate Center from 1980 to 2022. Results show that: (1) Area-averaged precipitation reaches 320 mm, exceeding the 1991-2020 climatological mean by 49% and ranking as the second highest since 1980, with localized areas receiving over twice normal amounts. Spatially, precipitation anomalies exhibit dominance of the EOF1 mode alongside EOF2 features. (2) Intensified Ural and Okhotsk blocking highs, combined with an anomalously active Baikal trough and an unusually westward and northward displaced western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), cause convergence between descending mid-high-latitude cold air and warm moist airflow from the WPSH periphery over Shanxi. Sufficient dynamic forcing and moisture supply directly result in abnormally heavy precipitation in

       

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