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    CDF-T方法在数值模式气温短中期订正预报的应用

    The Application of CDF-T in Bias Correction of Short-term and Medium-term Temperature Forecast Products of Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    • 摘要: 为提高站点气温短中期预报的准确率,增强对极端气温的预报能力,本研究利用2017-2024年上海市11个国家站地面观测数据和全球气候模式NCEP-CFSv2动力降尺度系统预测产品,基于CDF-T偏差订正方法对全球气候模式NCEP-CFSv2动力降尺度系统未来1-14天的预测气温进行订正,并对订正效果进行评估和误差分析。通过对2021—2024年的独立检验评估表明:就极值气温而言,动力降尺度系统表现为最高气温较观测偏低而最低气温较观测偏高的特点,采用CDF-T方法订正后,日最高气温和最低气温的极值均更接近于观测。对于不同季节的预报,春季和夏季的最高气温订正效果较为显著且订正效果在1-14天预报时效内保持稳定,夏季最为显著;春季、秋季和冬季的最低气温均订正效果显著且在1-14天预报时效内保持稳定,冬季最为显著。就订正效果的空间分布而言,夏季日最高气温呈现东部沿海订正效果优于西部的特点,而冬季日最低气温订正效果则呈现南部和北部优于中部的特点。就极端天气过程而言,高温天气过程,在1-14天预报时效内,整个上海地区均有较好的订正效果,且东部沿海地区订正效果较西部更为显著;低温天气过程,大部分郊区站点订正效果较好,中心城区及近郊部分站点订正效果不明显。

       

      Abstract: To improve the accuracy of short-term and medium-term temperature forecasts at stations and enhance the capability of predicting extreme temperatures, this study uses ground observation data from 11 national stations in Shanghai (2017–2024) and the dynamical downscaling system forecast products of the NCEP-CFSv2 global climate model. Based on the CDF-T bias correction method, the 1–14 day forecast temperatures from the NCEP-CFSv2 dynamical downscaling system are corrected, and the correction effects are evaluated with error analysis. Independent verification and evaluation for 2021–2024 show that, regarding extreme temperatures, the dynamical downscaling system exhibits the characteristic of underestimating maximum temperatures and overestimating minimum temperatures relative to observations. After applying the CDF-T method, the extremes of daily maximum and minimum temperatures align more closely with observations. The correction effects for maximum temperatures in spring and summer are more significant and remain stable over the 1–14 day forecast lead times, with the most significant effect in summer. For minimum temperatures, significant correction effects are observed in spring, autumn, and winter, remaining stable within the 1–14 day forecast lead times, with the most notable effect in winter. In terms of spatial distribution, the correction effects for summer daily maximum temperatures are better in eastern coastal regions than western regions, while those for winter daily minimum temperatures are

       

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