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    雾的标准化危险性指数计算方法及其应用

    Normalized fog hazard index and its application

    • 摘要: 在有雾的天气下经常发生几百辆车连续追尾碰撞的恶性交通事故,因此为了做好交通安全工作有必要开展雾的风险分析研究。在考虑雾的出现频率、持续时间和能见度3个参数的基础上,通过改进雾的危险性指数(FHI)方法,得出了适合我国气象标准的雾的标准化危险性指数(NFHI)的计算方法。为了使危险性指数适应雾的数值预报产品的应用,进一步改进了雾的标准化危险性指数的形式,提出了适合数值预测模式的雾的标准化危险性指数。最后结合京津塘高速公路沿线5个国家气象站36 a的雾的观测数据,利用NFI方法计算得出了4个季节的雾的危险性等级,并使用数值预报结果计算了不同地点的雾的标准化危险性指数。利用该指数计算方法可以通过比较不同路径危险性的大小进行最佳路径的选择,为交通安全提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: Serious traffic accident such as hundreds of vehicles rear-end collision often occurs under fog weather, so it is important to evaluate fog risk for traffic safety. Based on fog frequency, fog duration and visibility, fog hazard index (FHI) is suggested in this paper, and normalized fog hazard index (NFHI) calculation method was established, which is suitable for Chinese meteorological standard. NFHI was modified for suitable to numerical forecast products of fog, then the new index was brought forward. According to fog observational data from five stations along Jingjintang expressway in recent 36 years, fog risk grades in four seasons were determined in terms of new index. NFHI at different sites was calculated by numerical forecast results. This index can also be used to select the optimum route by risk comparison of different paths, which can provide scientific reference for traffic safety.

       

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