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    气候变暖对石家庄春季物候的影响

    Effects of climate warming on spring phenophase in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province

    • 摘要: 利用统计方法分析了1965-2007年石家庄春季物候特征,研究了春季物候期与日平均气温稳定通过指示温度日期之间的关系,探讨了气候变暖对石家庄春季物候的影响。结果表明:石家庄春季物候期呈提前趋势;物候期与日平均气温稳定通过指示温度日期的关系是正相关,即日平均气温稳定通过指示温度的日期提早,则物候期提前,反之则物候期推迟;早春、仲春物候与2-4月气温相关性最大,晚春物候与春季气温相关性最大,春季物候对温度的响应不同;春季物候发生转折的时期与气温突变(或转折)的时期同步或紧随其后;春季物候异常偏晚年主要分布在20世纪90年代之前,异常偏早年主要分布在90年代之后,物候异常偏早年通常是气候异常偏暖年,物候异常偏晚年不一定是气候异常偏冷年,但通常是气候异常度为负值的年份。

       

      Abstract: Spring phenophase characteristics and its relationship with the date of stable air temperature over the indicating temperature were analyzed by statistic method from 1965 to 2007 in Shijiazhuang, and the effects of climate warming on spring phenophase were also discussed. The results indicate that spring phenophase is ahead. There is a positive relation between spring phenophase and the date of air temperature over the indicating temperature. The relativity of early spring and middle spring phenophase with air temperature from February to April is significant, while that of late spring phenophase with spring air temperature is also obvious. The responses of spring phenophase to air temperature are different. The turning time of spring phenophase and the time of air temperature abrupt change are synchronous or slightly late. Abnormal late year of spring phenophase often appears before 1990s, while abnormal early year often occurs after 1990s. Phenophase abnormal early year is usually the climate abnormal warm year. Phenophase abnormal late year is not always the climate abnormal cold year, but its climate abnormal degree is usually the positive.

       

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