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    农业气象服务效益评估方法研究

    Evaluation methods on the benefit from agricultural meteorological services

    • 摘要: 科学、准确的对我国农业气象服务效益进行评估和分析,对政府和企业正确决策,提高农业气象防灾减灾能力,具有重要的作用和意义。结合农业气象服务的特点,采用剂量-反应分析和德尔菲法相结合的研究方法,研究提出了农业气象服务效益评估模式。该评估模式以典型单位的气象服务贡献率的实际测定值为参考值,运用专家评估法,由农业专家估测出气象服务在该农业生产中的贡献率,以此为基础分析评估出农业气象服务效益值。应用这一评估模式,对河南省农业气象服务效益进行了实证分析评估。结果表明,种植业气象服务贡献率为6.90 %,而后依次是牧业4.20 %、林业3.93 %、农林牧渔服务业3.36 %和渔业2.90 %。同时,分析研究了2007年以来,河南省农业气象服务效益的动态变化,研究表明,气象服务效益值随着农业产值的增加而不断提高,从2007年128.27亿元攀升至2010年191.65亿元,年均增速达到14.32 %。河南省农业气象服务平均贡献率保持在5.60 %—5.90 %之间,这一比率远高于全国,由此也说明了农业气象服务对河南省农业生产的重要作用。

       

      Abstract: Scientific and accurate evaluation on the benefit from agricultural meteorological services in China is important to decision makers for government and enterprises and improving disaster prevention and reduction ability of agricultural meteorology. According to the characteristics of agricultural meteorological services and the combined method of a Dose-response analysis and a Delphi technique, an evaluation mode for agricultural meteorological service benefit was established. This evaluation mode takes measurement value of meteorological service contribution rate for typical unit as the reference value, and meteorological service contribution rate in agricultural production was estimated using an expert evaluation method. Based on the above-mentioned method, the benefit value of agricultural meteorological service in He’nan province was evaluated as a case study. The results indicate that the meteorological service contribution rate for farm industry is 6.90 %, followed by husbandry of 4.20%, forestry of 3.93%, and agricultural service of 3.36% and fishing of 2.90%. At the same time, the analysis of the dynamic variation of agricultural meteorological service benefit in He’nan province since 2007 shows that the value of the meteorological service benefit improves with the increasing agricultural production value. The agricultural production value increases from 12.827 billion yuan in 2007 to 19.165 billion yuan in 2010, and annual increased speed reaches 14.32%. Average contribution rate of agricultural meteorological service in He’nan province remains between 5.60% and 5.90%, which is much higher than average of China. It suggests that agricultural meteorological service is important to agricultural production in He’nan province.

       

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