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    对流参数气候特征在短期预报中的应用

    Application of convective parameters climatic characteristics in short-term forecast

    • 摘要: 利用对流参数气候特征,可以判断对流天气出现的可能性,进而提高预报时效。以2004年和2005年6-8月石家庄17个地面站观测资料和邢台站高空探测资料为例,计算了对流有效位能(CAPE)、沙氏指数(SI)、K指数(KI)和对流性稳定度指数(IC)等对流参数的气候平均值(气候特征),求取雷暴日和强雷暴日各对流参数的平均值。结果表明:不同的月份与不同强度对流天气的气候特征有明显差别。计算了2006年7月逐日4个时次的对流参数,并分析这些参数和石家庄天气的关系表明:CAPE和SI能够较好的反映出强对流的一些特征;02时和14时加密探空资料弥补了08时和20时时间间隔较长的缺陷,对提高对流天气的短期和短时预报水平,有着十分重要的意义。

       

      Abstract: According to the climatic characteristics of convective parameters, the probability of occurring convective weather can be estimated ahead of time, so forecast accuracy will be improved. Based on the sounding data of 17 ground stations in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai from June to August in 2004-2005, climatic average values of convective parameters (CAPE, SI, KI and IC) were calculated, and then average value of each convective parameter in thunderstorm day and strong storm day was given. The results indicate that climatic characteristics of convective weather are different in the different months and in the different intensities. Furthermore, convective parameters of daily 4 time levels in July of 2006 are calculated, and the relationship between these parameters and weather in Shijiazhuang are analyzed. It found that CAPE and SI can reflect some strong convective characteristics. The upper-air sounding records at 0200 and 1400 (BST) can make up the limitation of overtime interval from 0800 to 2000 (BST), which is significant to improve the abilities of short-term and nowcasting forecast.

       

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