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    苏浙沪地区高温灾害风险区划研究

    Study on high temperature disaster risk regionalization in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region

    • 摘要: 利用1961-2009年苏浙沪地区144个气象站的观测数据和2008-2010年苏浙沪地区社会经济资料,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感度、承灾体易损性及抗灾能力4个方面综合评估和分析了苏浙沪地区高温灾害风险的空间差异。结果表明:1961-2009年苏浙沪地区高温致灾因子呈南高北低的分布特征,浙江地区高温致灾因子危险性明显大于上海和江苏地区;孕灾环境敏感度指数呈北部和中部地区高、南部地区低的分布,高温灾害高敏感区主要分布在江苏、上海及浙北的平原和沿海地区;经济发达和规模较大的苏浙沪核心城市多为高温灾害承灾体高易损性区,苏北和浙南相对欠发达地区多为高温灾害承灾体低易损性区、次低易损性区或中等易损性区;沪宁杭地区高温灾害的抗灾能力最强,对应的抗灾能力风险较低,而苏北地区和浙南山区高温灾害的的抗灾能力风险较高。综合致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感度、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面,苏浙沪地区高温灾害综合风险总体呈中南部地区风险高、北部地区风险低的分布,高温灾害高风险区和次高风险区主要集中分布在浙江大部及上海、苏南部分地区,高温灾害低风险区或次低风险区主要分布在长江以北和浙江沿海地区。

       

      Abstract: In this study,the meteorological data from 144 stations (1961-2009) and the related socio-economic data (2008-2010) were used to analyze the high temperature disaster risk in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai (JZS) region from the points of disaster factors' hazard,sensitivity of disaster environment,vulnerability of bearing body and resistant capacity.The results show that hazard of high temperature disaster factors is high in the southern area of JZS region and is relatively low in the northern JZS,and the dangerous index is significantly larger in Zhejiang province than in Jiangsu province and Shanghai.The sensitivity of disaster environment (SDE) value is higher in northern and central areas of JZS,while it is lower in southern JZS.The maximum value of SDE is distributed in Jiangsu,Shanghai,and the plain and seashore areas in northern Zhejiang.For those important developed large cities in Yangtze River Delta,their bearing bodies of high temperature disaster are of the highest vulnerability.Regions with low vulnerability,sub-low vulnerability or moderate vulnerability are distributed in northern Jiangsu and southern Zhejiang where it is relatively undeveloped.The regions with the strongest resistant capacity are distributed in the surrounding areas of Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou,and the homologous risks in these areas are relatively low.The integrated risk of high temperature disaster in JZS region is high in central and southern JZS while is relatively low in northern JZS.The highest-risk and sub-highest-risk areas are distributed in Zhejiang,Shanghai and southern Jiangsu,and the low-risk and sub-low-risk areas are mostly distributed in the areas north to the Yangtze River and the coastal areas of Zhejiang province.

       

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