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    基于CUACE模式的合肥地区空气质量预报效果检验

    Verification of CUACE model in Hefei,Anhui province

    • 摘要: 为了检验CUACE模式指导产品在合肥地区的预报性能,本文利用合肥地区PM2.5、PM10、O3监测资料对中国气象局下发的2014年3月至2015年2月合肥地区空气质量CUACE模式指导产品的预报效果进行了检验。结果表明:2014年3月至2015年2月合肥地区CUACE模式指导产品AQI和PM2.5浓度的预报值接近实测值,PM10浓度预报值略小于实测值,O3浓度的预报值明显偏大,但O3浓度的预报值与实测值相关性最好,AQI、PM2.5浓度和PM10浓度预报值与实测值之间的相关系数均为0.3—0.4。实测空气质量等级为良时,CUACE模式空气质量等级预报的TS评分最高,漏报率和空报率最小;实测首要污染物为PM2.5时,CUACE模式首要污染预报TS评分最高,漏报率和空报率最小。CUACE模式的预报性能并未随预报时效的延长而降低,CUACE模式指导产品总体预报效果较好,可为合肥市空气质量预报提供指导。

       

      Abstract: In order to evaluate the prediction performance of guide products of the CUACE model in Hefei,the observed data were used to verify the guide products from March 2014 to February 2015.The results show that the forecasting AQI and PM2.5 concentrations by CUACE model are close to the observed values over Hefei,however,the forecasting concentrations of PM10 are slightly lower than the observed values while those of O3 are significantly higher than the observed values.However,the correlation coefficient between forecasting and observed concentrations of O3 is relatively high and those of AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 are just between 0.3 and 0.4.When observed air quality level is "moderate",the TS score of forecasting air quality level reaches the peak.When he primary pollutant is PM2.5,the rates of false alarm and missing report both become minimum.The prediction performance of CUACE doesn't decrease with the extension of the forecasting period.Due to its reasonably good prediction performance,the CUACE model can be used to provide some reference and help for the air quality forecast in Hefei city.

       

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