Abstract:
In order to evaluate the prediction performance of guide products of the CUACE model in Hefei,the observed data were used to verify the guide products from March 2014 to February 2015.The results show that the forecasting
AQI and PM
2.5 concentrations by CUACE model are close to the observed values over Hefei,however,the forecasting concentrations of PM
10 are slightly lower than the observed values while those of O
3 are significantly higher than the observed values.However,the correlation coefficient between forecasting and observed concentrations of O
3 is relatively high and those of
AQI,PM
2.5 and PM
10 are just between 0.3 and 0.4.When observed air quality level is "moderate",the TS score of forecasting air quality level reaches the peak.When he primary pollutant is PM
2.5,the rates of false alarm and missing report both become minimum.The prediction performance of CUACE doesn't decrease with the extension of the forecasting period.Due to its reasonably good prediction performance,the CUACE model can be used to provide some reference and help for the air quality forecast in Hefei city.