高级检索

    2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

    Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of heat stroke and the influence of heat wave on it in Ningbo city from 2012 to 2016

    • 摘要: 城市高温热浪事件严重影响人体健康和生命安全已成共识。利用宁波市2012-2016年中暑病例数据和同期气候数据对宁波市夏半年中暑流行特征及热浪对其的影响作了相关分析。结果表明:2012-2016年,2012年和2013年中暑人数最多,并集中在6-8月,其中7月人数最多占比55.3%;男性中暑概率明显高于女性,中暑程度主要集中在轻度中暑,31-60岁年龄段中暑人数占比最高,市区中暑人数占比要高于郊区(县);用温湿两要素结合的炎热指数和热浪公式定义宁波热浪过程,发现热浪天数和中暑人数的相关系数高达0.898,选出7次热浪过程计算热浪中暑的相对危险度,发现除2013年以外其他年份热浪中暑的相对危险度均在10以下,2013年的3次热浪中暑的相对危险度分别为18.1、21.6和25.8,这与2013年热浪出现相对频繁集中有关;同时通过这7次热浪过程的前、后段热浪中暑的相对危险度的比较,并未见明显的热浪滞后效应存在。

       

      Abstract: It has been a common understanding that urban heat wave events seriously affect human health and life safety.Based on the data of heat stroke cases in Ningbo city and the corresponding climate data from 2012 to 2016,a correlation analysis was made on the prevalence characteristics of heatstroke in summer and the impact of the heat wave on the heat stroke in Ningbo city.The results show that the number of heatstrokes is the highest in 2012 and 2013,and is concentrated in June to August,of which the percentage ratio is 55.3% in July.The incidence of heat stroke in males is significantly higher than that in females,and the degree of heat stroke is mainly concentrated in mild heat stroke.The proportion of heat stroke among people aged 31-60 is the highest,and the proportion of heat stroke in urban areas is higher than that in suburban areas.With two elements in combination with the heat index of temperature humidity and heat wave formula defined the Ningbo heat process,we find that the correlation coefficient of heat number and heat number is as high as 0.898.Seven heat processes were selected to calculate the heat stroke relative risk,it’s found that except 2013 the heat stroke relative risk index (RR) is under 10 in each year.The RR values corresponding to the three heat strokes in 2013 are 18.1,21.6 and 25.8,respectively,which are related to high frequency of heat wave in this year.Through comparing the relative risk of heat stroke before and after the seven heat wave events,no significant heat lag effect is found.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回