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    CCSM4模式对东北气温和降水的模拟及预估

    Simulation and projection of temperature and precipitation by CCSM4 model in Northeast China

    • 摘要: 利用东北地区162个气象观测站逐月气温和降水资料对CCSM4模式的模拟性能进行了评价,并预估了2021-2050年东北地区的气候变化情景。结果表明:CCSM4模式长期历史气候模拟实验模拟的1961-2005年月平均气温、降水量值能较好地再现东北区域年平均气温、降水量的空间分布形态,但气温模拟值比观测偏低,91.4%站点误差在1.5℃以内;降水中心比观测略偏北,全区平均偏多35.18 mm。2021-2050年东北区域年平均气温呈增温趋势,高纬度地区的增温幅度明显大于低纬度地区,与基准年相比,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全区分别偏高6.00℃、5.86℃和6.42℃。年降水量分布呈东南向西北递减的形态,降水大值中心出现在东南部吉林与辽宁交界处,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全区分别偏多15.2%、3.1%和2.0%。

       

      Abstract: The monthly temperature and precipitation data from 162 meteorological observation stations were used to evaluate the simulation performance of the CCSM4 model and predict the climate change scenario in Northeast China from 2021 to 2050.Results show that monthly mean temperature and precipitation values simulated by the long-term historical climate CCSM4 mode simulation experiment from 1961 to 2005 can reproduce the Northeast regional annual average temperature,rainfall spatial distribution form.However,the temperature simulation values are lower than those of observations.The temperature error in 91.4% stations is within 1.5 ℃.The precipitation center is slightly shifted to the north compared with the observations.There is a positive bias of 35.18 mm of average precipitation for the whole region.For 2021-2050,the annual average temperature in Northeast China increases.The amplitude of increased temperature in the high latitude is larger than that in the low latitudes.Compared with the benchmark year,the temperature increasing amplitudes under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are 6.00 ℃,5.86 ℃ and 6.42 ℃,respectively.The annual precipitation distribution presents a pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest.The high-value center in precipitation appears at the southeast part of the junction zone of Jilin and Liaoning provinces.Under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,the increasing percentage in precipitation is 15.2%,3.1%,and 2.0%,respectively for the whole research area.

       

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