Abstract:
Based on the data from the high-resolution RegCM4.4 (Regional Climate Model version 4.4) and the daily meteorological observations from 1986-2005, the climate change in the future in Central China was estimated under the temperature rising threshold of 1.5℃ and 2℃.The model simulation performance was tested.The results show that the simulation results can accurately reflect the annual variation and spatial distribution characteristics of regional air temperature and precipitation.Compared with the observed values, the simulated values of temperature are lower and the simulated values of precipitation are larger.Compared with 1986-2005, under the future RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario, the increase of air temperature in Central China during 2020-2098 is 2.1℃, and the increasing trend is 0.3℃/10 a, while the precipitation trend has no significant change.The long-term (2080-2098) temperature will rise by 2.88℃, and the precipitation will increase by 7.58%, which are both higher than the recent (2020-2035) and medium-term (2046-2065) 1.5℃ temperature rise scenarios in Central China, where the temperature will rise by 1.22℃, and the precipitation will increase by 1.93%.Under the 2℃ temperature rise scenario, the temperature in Central China increases by 1.36℃, and the precipitation increases by 3.57%.