Abstract:
Based on lightning location data and radar data, the 30 dBz, 35 dBz, and 40 dBz echo peaks of the 17 thunderstorm cells and 9 non-thunderstorm cells, as well as the relationship between the echo area exceeding 30 dBz, 35 dBz and 40 dBz at 0℃, -10℃, and-20℃ layer and the occurrence of lightning in Shaoyang in the summer of 2018, were analyzed.Using 40 dBz echo top height, the echo area above the-10℃ layer exceeding 40 dBz and its ratio to the total area of the cell, the lightning in this area was forecasted.The results show that when the echo intensity of thunderstorm cell and non-thunderstorm cell is 40 dBz, the difference of percentage of three stratification heights exceeding 0℃, -10℃, and-20℃ is the largest.The 40 dBz echo top height of the-10℃ layer can better distinguish thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells in the Shaoyang area than other stratification heights.When the percentage of the area above the-10℃ layer exceeding 40 dBz in the total cell area is greater than 1% of the threshold, it can be used as an effective early warning indicator to distinguish between thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells.Comprehensive use of 40 dBz echo top height, -10℃ layer above the echo area of more than 40 dBz and the percentage of the total area of the monomer to test 12 monomer samples, the accuracy rate of thunderstorm forecast is 66.7%.The accuracy rate of non-thunderstorm cell judgment is 83.3%.