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    基于多源降水融合试验的四川省降水实况分析产品优化

    Improvement of merged precipitation products in Sichuan province based on precipitation merging experiment

    • 摘要: 选用2021年4—9月四川省地面观测降水数据、雷达定量估测降水产品,基于国家气象信息中心降水融合算法生成四川省0.01°/1 h分辨率降水实况分析产品(SC),参考四川省地面观测数据,以观测值是否被修改分为两类,分别对SC与国家气象信息中心三源融合实时降水实况分析产品(RT)进行精细化对比评估,分析融入错误观测数据对RT的影响,应用支持向量机回归算法对RT进行优化并评估。结果表明:观测值未修改情况下,两种产品在四川盆地内部性能相近,川西高原和凉山、攀枝花地区RT性能较好,大部分区域RT平均绝对误差较小,均方根误差较大,即RT与观测值间易出现个别较大误差。观测值被修改情况下,四川省SC明显优于RT,RT较观测值明显偏大,表明错误的观测数据对RT性能存在显著影响。优化后,四川全省区域产品的平均绝对误差减小了29.9%,均方根误差减小了41.1%,相关系数增大了4.94%。

       

      Abstract: Based on the CMPAS (CMA Multi-source merged Precipitation Analysis System) algorithm developed by National Meteorological Information Center(NMIC), using the ground observational precipitation data and radar quantitative precipitation estimation data, Sichuan provincial precipitation products of 0.01°/1 h (SC) during April to September, 2021, were produced.Taking the hourly precipitation observation data as true value, SC and real-time precipitation products of 0.01°/1 h (RT) developed by NMIC were evaluated.The evaluation was divided into two categories according to whether the observation data is modified or not.On this basis, using the machine learning support vector regression algorithm (SVR), the improvement method of RT was developed.The results show that, in the case of observation data is not modified, RT is prone to overestimation and SC is prone to underestimation.These two kinds of products have similar performance in the basin area.RT has a better performance in Panzhihua, Liangshan, Ganzi and Aba region.In the case in which the observation data are modified, no matter the whole province or each region within the province, SC is clearly better than RT.RT is significantly larger than the observation value.This implies that the wrong observational data before modification have a significant impact on the performance of RT.The mean absolute error of the improved products is reduced by 29.9% and the root mean square error is reduced by 41.1% and the correlation coefficient is increased by 4.94% compared with that before the improvement.

       

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