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    1970—2021年大连市冻土深度变化及其对气候变暖的响应

    Changes in frozen soil depth in Dalian city from 1970 to 2021 and its response to climate warming

    • 摘要: 选用1970年10月至2021年4月大连市6个气象站的冻土观测资料、逐日平均地温、逐日平均气温及极端最低气温等资料,应用小波分析、线性回归分析、M-K检验等方法,分析近51 a大连市最大冻土深度的时空变化特征,并探讨其对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:1970—2021年大连市最大冻土深度的气候倾向率为-6.9 cm/10 a,年平均冻土持续时间为117 d,年变化为减少趋势,气候倾向率为-7.2 d/10 a;冻土开始日期推迟、结束日期提前,平均开始日期和结束日期分别为11月20日和3月18日。冻土最大冻结深度具有4类尺度的周期变化特征,其中以16~26 a的周期变化最显著。相关关系分析表明,近51 a大连市地温、气温、极端最低气温与最大冻土深度均为显著的负相关关系,地温对冻土最大深度的影响最为显著。

       

      Abstract: Based on frozen soil observation data,daily average ground temperature,daily average air temperature,and extreme minimum air temperature from six meteorological stations in Dalian city from October 1970 to April 2021,this study analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of maximum frozen soil depth in Dalian over the past 51 years and explore its response to climate warming using wavelet analysis,linear regression analysis,and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test.The results show that the maximum frozen soil depth was at a climate tendency rate of -6.9 cm/10 a,the average annual duration of frozen soil is 117 days,with a decreasing trend at the climate tendency climate tendency rate of -7.2 days/10 a.The onset of freezing is increasingly delayed,while the end date advances,with the average onset and end dates being November 20 and March 18,respectively.The maximum frozen soil depth exhibited periodic variation characteristics at 4 scales,with the 16-26 year period being the most significant.Correlation analysis reveals that ground temperature,air temperature,and extreme minimum temperature are all significantly negatively correlated with maximum frozen soil depth,with ground temperature exerting the strongest influence.

       

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