XGBoost方法在风电功率预报中的应用
Application of the XGBoost method in wind power forecasting
-
摘要: 使用2014年全球能源预测竞赛(GEFCom2014)风电功率观测和训练数据,开展基于XGBoost机器学习方法在风电功率预报中的应用研究。为考察不同变量数值分布对机器学习的可能影响,分别使用纬向风和经向风,以及风速和风向作为特征变量建立风电功率预报模型,并进行预报试验。结果表明:实际观测功率和数值预报风速的分布虽然整体符合风能功率曲线,但离散度过大。纬向风和经向风与风功率的相关性虽然不高,但作为XGBoost的训练特征变量,最终建立的模型具有较好的预报效果,与直接使用风速和风向建立的模型预报性能接近。模型预报结果呈现对风能峰值低估,以及低功率高估的情况,这可能与数值模式预报的风速存在误差有关。Abstract: Using the wind power observation and training data from the 2014 Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2014),a study on the application of the XGBoost machine learning method in wind power forecasting was conducted.To assess the potential influence of variable distribution on machine learning models,wind power forecasting models were developed using zonal wind and meridional wind,as well as wind speed and wind direction as feature variables.Forecast experiments show that although the distributions of actual observed wind power and numerically forecasted wind speed generally follow the wind power curve,the high degree of dispersion is a major factor contributing to the uncertainty in wind power forecasts.While the correlation between zonal/meridional winds and wind power is not high,models trained with these features using XGBoost still achieve good forecasting performance comparable to those built directly with wind speed and wind direction.The forecast results of the models tend to underestimate wind power peaks and overestimate low power values,which may be attributed to errors in numerically forecasted wind speed.
下载: