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    内蒙古次百米级数值预报系统在复杂地形下的风场预报性能分析

    Analysis on wind field forecast performance under complex terrains of the Sub-hundred-meter Numerical Forecast System of Inner Mongolia

    • 摘要: 为满足第十四届全国冬季运动会(简称“十四冬”)对复杂地形高精度天气预报服务的需求,结合大涡模拟技术及高精度地形数据,搭建了针对“十四冬”室外赛区的内蒙古次百米级数值预报系统(the Sub-hundred-meter Numerical Forecast System of Inner Mongolia,SNFS)。以赛区站点观测资料为参考,根据风速预报检验指标及检验评分等参数,对SNFS在“十四冬”3个赛区的风场预报性能进行检验评估。结果表明:扎兰屯及喀喇沁赛区预报风速总体表现为系统性高估,凉城赛区为低估。对于海拔高度较低的测站,预报与观测风速偏差均以正偏差为主,随测站海拔高度增加,风速偏差转为负偏差,偏差离散程度增大。扎兰屯及喀喇沁赛区在各预报时效内都存在对小于6级实测风预报偏强,而对大于6级实测风预报偏弱的特点,凉城赛区则预报均偏弱,其中扎兰屯赛区对大于6级的实测风预报评分优势明显。进一步分析扎兰屯赛区一次大风天气个例表明,预报风向与观测风向基本吻合,风速变化趋势一致,SNFS可以刻画出局地流场特征,对复杂地形下的风场具有较好的预报能力。

       

      Abstract: To meet the demand for high-precision weather forecasting services under complex terrains for the 14th National Winter Games,the Sub-hundred-meter Numerical Forecast System of Inner Mongolia (SNFS) was developed by integrating large eddy simulation technology and high-resolution terrain data,specifically for the outdoor competition areas of the 14th National Winter Games.This paper uses the observational data from the competition area stations as references,and evaluates the wind field forecasting performance of the SNFS system in the three competition areas based on wind speed forecast evaluation indicators and assessment scores.The results indicate that there is a systematic overestimation of wind speed forecast in the Zhalantun and Kharchin competition areas,while an underestimation in the Liangcheng competition area.For stations at lower elevations,the forecast and observed wind speed deviations are mainly positive; with increasing station elevation,the wind speed deviations turn to negative and become more dispersed.The forecast for Zhalantun and Kharchin competition areas tend to overestimate the wind weaker than Grade 6 and underestimated the wind stronger than or equal to Grade 6 in different lead times; while the Liangcheng competition area consistently underestimates the wind,and the Zhalantun competition area shows a significant advantage in forecast score.Further analysis of an individual case of strong wind weather in the Zhalantun competition area shows that,the forecast wind direction is generally consistent with the observed wind direction,and the trend of wind speed change.The SNFS system can characterize the local flow field characteristics and has good forecasting capability for wind fields under complex terrains.

       

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