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    基于改进层次分析法的区域雷电灾害风险模糊评估

    Fuzzy assessment of regional lightning hazard risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process

    • 摘要: 为科学有效开展区域雷电灾害风险评估,在分析国内外灾害损失评估方法、雷电灾害风险评估相关技术标准和规范的基础上,提出基于改进层次分析法的区域雷电灾害风险模糊综合评估方案。利用3标度改进层次分析法计算评估指标权重,避免一致性检验,提高判断矩阵构造的便捷性和准确性;采用等差三角形隶属函数确定评估指标风险等级隶属度,实现不同类型评估指标风险等级隶属度确定方法的一致性;根据最大隶属度原则确定评估结果及风险等级,符合雷电灾害的模糊性和不确定性,提高风险评估的科学性。结果表明:利用该方案,采用闪电定位资料、雷达气象数据、现场实际勘测和区域规划报告等,对河北保定莲池高新技术产业开发区进行区域雷电灾害风险评估,评估结果与采用现行雷电灾害风险评估技术规范取得的结果一致,证明本方法的可行性和正确性。

       

      Abstract: In order to carry out regional lightning disaster risk assessment scientifically and effectively,a fuzzy comprehensive assessment scheme of regional lightning disaster risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) was proposed based on the analysis of domestic and international disaster loss assessment methods,especially the relevant technical standards and specifications of lightning disaster risk assessment.The improved three scale analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate weights of assessment index,avoiding the consistency test,and improving the convenience and accuracy of constructing judgment matrix.The membership degree of risk grade of assessment index was determined by using triangular arithmetic membership function; and the consistency of the membership degree determination methods of risk grade of different assessment indexes was realized.The evaluation results and risk grades were determined according to the maximum membership degree principle,which accounts for the fuzziness and uncertainty of lightning disaster and improves the scientific robustness of risk assessment.By implementing this methodology with lightning positioning data,radar meteorological observations,on-site field investigations,and regional planning documentation,a comprehensive lightning disaster risk assessment was carried for Hebei Baoding Lianchi High-tech Industrial Development Zone.The results are consistent with those obtained by using the current technical standards for lightning disaster risk assessment,which confirms the feasibility and reliability of the method.

       

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