Research on meteorological prediction model of occurrence area rate of Corn borer(Ostrinia furnacalis) in Tianjin

Utilizing weather data from 13 national meteorological stations,Corn borer(Ostrinia furnacalis) area and corn planting area data from 1990 to 2023 in Tianjin,this study employs multiple stepwise regression method to establish meteorological forecast model for occurrence area rate of Corn borer and discusses the relationship between weather condition and Corn borer occurrence area rate.The results indicate that average minimum temperature in June and precipitation in late May are the main meteorological factors affecting variation of Corn borer occurrence area rate.The influence of the former is greater than the latter.This research establishes forecast model including two meteorological factors.The model passes the significance test at the level of 0.01 and back substitution accuracy is 72.4%.The prediction accuracy is 100% from 2019 to 2023.This study analyzes the model error in considering the field pest in spring.Under conditions of high pest numbers,the accuracy of the model is significantly improved.The occurrence area rate shows parabolic change and trend downward from 2010.Affected by the rise of temperature,the occurrence area rate is still high from 2010 to the present and higher than that from 1990 to 2009.Under the background of a slight increase in corn acreage,the occurrence acreage of Corn borer shows an increasing trend in future.