Meteorological conditions of corn borer mortality rate during overwintering and its forecast model

Based on the meteorological data from 1994 to 2004 in Heishan of Liaoning province and the corn borer overwintering data, the meteorological conditions during corn borer overwintering and the relationship with mortality rate were analyzed by path analysis method. Forecast model of the mortality rates during April and May was established. The results indicate that the mortality rates of corn borer are significantly influenced by the meteorological conditions from March to May. The mortality rates of this period are higher than those of prophase. The forecast model can display the relationship between meteorological conditions and mortality rates during corn borer overwintering, which can be used as the reference in forecast operation. The accuracy rates of the forecast are better if the mortality rates of corn borer before overwintering are considered. It shows that the forecast of corn borer mortality rates is not accurate if the meteorological conditions are only considered. Thus, the larva basic number should be considered.