Evolvement character of agricultural climate resources in Liaoning province from 2011 to 2050 based on B2 climate change scenarios

Based on the output data of the regional climate model PRECIS, the temporal and spatial evolvement characteristics of agricultural climate resources considering future climate change scenarios of B2 (2011—2050) in Liaoning province were investigated by the methods of a time series analysis and a spatial analysis. The results indicate that the increasing trend of radiation resources is not significant, but has a peak value from 2031 to 2040. Precipitation is in a decreasing trend during the growing season, and the changes of radiation resource and precipitation are contrary. The decreasing amplitude of precipitation increases from the west to the east, and reaches 20 mm/decade in the east of Liaoning province. Precipitation is indicative to flood and drought events in the different periods. The accumulated temperature (≥10℃) is in an obvious increasing trend, and its increasing amplitude is 100 ℃·d/decade in most of Liaoning province. The beginning date of frost is delayed 1-3 days in the east of western Liaoning province and the west of northern Liaoning province, while the ending date of frost is advanced in about 1-2 days in the north and the east of Liaoning province. The changes of the beginning and ending dates make frost-free season are prolonged, and it suggests that the thermal resource will increase obviously in future 40 years, which will provide the references for the adjustment of agricultural planting structure in order to respond to climate change.