主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 1-8.doi: 10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.01.001

• 论文 •    下一篇

WRF模式对济南地区夏季近地面气象场模拟效果评估

顾沈旦1, 于丽娟2, 尹承美2, 何建军3,4   

  1. 1. 中国卫星海上测控部, 江苏江阴 214431;
    2. 济南市气象局, 山东济南 250002;
    3. 南开大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300071;
    4. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-09 修回日期:2015-04-21 出版日期:2016-02-28 发布日期:2016-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 何建军,E-mail:hejianjun520520@163.com。 E-mail:hejianjun520520@163.com
  • 作者简介:顾沈旦,男,1982年生,工程师,主要从事中尺度数值模拟研究,E-mail:53697224@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2014-15)资助。

Evaluation of summer near-surface meteorological fields simulated by WRF model in Ji'nan

GU Shen-dan1, YU Li-juan2, YIN Cheng-mei2, HE Jian-jun3,4   

  1. 1. China Satellite Maritime Tracking & Control Department, Jiangyin 214431, China;
    2. Ji'nan Meteorological Service, Ji'nan 250002, China;
    3. The College of Environmental Science & Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China;
    4. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process & Climate Change in Cold & Arid Regions, Cold & Arid Regions Environmental & Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2015-01-09 Revised:2015-04-21 Online:2016-02-28 Published:2016-02-28

摘要: 不同地区中尺度气象模式WRF的模拟性能存在明显差异,本文利用数值模拟和统计方法,评估了WRF模式在济南地区的模拟性能,并对比研究地形和土地利用对WRF模式模拟性能的影响,为WRF模式在济南地区的业务化运行提供参考。结果表明:WRF模式能较准确的模拟济南地区近地面气象场及其时间变化特征;统计分析发现,WRF模式对济南地区近地面气温、比湿、风速及风向的模拟准确率分别为72.5%、59.6%、29.4%和36.2%。WRF模式模拟的济南地区夏季比湿偏低、风速偏高,模拟的风速存在系统性偏差。下垫面对WRF模式的模拟结果有显著影响,10 m风速的均方根误差(RMSE)与地形、坡度、模式格点和观测站点的地形偏差显著相关,与坡度的相关系数最大;2 m气温的RMSE仅与地形偏差显著相关,在复杂地形区比较站点观测气温与模式格点气温时,需考虑地形偏差的影响。

关键词: WRF模式, 评估, 地形, 土地利用, 相关分析

Abstract: The meso-scale meteorological model had different performance in different regions.Using a numerical simulation method and a statistical method, performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was assessed in Ji'nan area, and impacts of the topography and land use on the WRF simulation were comparatively discussed in order to provide scientific references for operational running of the WRF model.The results indicate that the WRF model can simulate near-surface meteorological fields and their temporal variation well.Based on the statistical analysis, the accurate rates of simulated temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and wind direction are 72.5%, 59.6%, 29.4% and 36.2% for the WRF model, respectively.In summer, the WRF model underestimates specific humidity and overestimates wind speed over the Ji'nan regions, and it has obvious systematic bias on wind speed simulation.The effect of underlying surface on the simulation results of WRF model is significant.Root mean square error (RMSE) of the simulated 10 m wind speed is significantly correlated with topography, slope, and terrain deviation between model grid point and observed station point, especially with slope, while RMSE of the simulated 2 m temperature is only significantly correlated with terrain deviation.It should consider the impact of terrain deviation in complex terrain area if temperature from model grid point is compared with that from weather stations.

Key words: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Evaluation, Topography, Land use, Correlation analysis

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