主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 29-35.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.03.004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江省夏季降水主模态异常型前兆信号分析

李永生1, 王永光2, 王莹3   

  1. 1. 黑龙江省气候中心, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;
    2. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
    3. 黑龙江省气象服务中心, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-23 修回日期:2016-06-28 出版日期:2017-06-30 发布日期:2017-06-30
  • 作者简介:李永生,男,1984年生,高级工程师,主要从事短期气候预测和气候诊断分析研究,E-mail:liyongsheng330@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    973项目“重大气候灾害的早期预警信号和预测方法”（2012CB95502）、黑龙江省气象局项目（HQ2015027）和黑龙江省气象局青年英才计划共同资助。

Analysis of the precursor signal of an abnormal main mode for summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province

LI Yong-sheng1, WANG Yong-guang2, WANG Ying3   

  1. 1. Climate Center in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China;
    2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Meteorological Service Center in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China
  • Received:2016-03-23 Revised:2016-06-28 Online:2017-06-30 Published:2017-06-30

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摘要： 基于主成分回归法，利用1981—2010年黑龙江省 15个地面气象站夏季降水观测资料、1980—2015年NCEP/NCAR（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research）再分析资料和NOAA（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）月平均海表温度资料，建立了黑龙江省夏季降水统计预测模型，并分析了影响黑龙江省夏季降水主模态的前兆信号。结果表明：影响黑龙江省夏季降水主模态异常型前兆信号为前一年11月新地岛和喀拉海以南地区的高度场、前冬北太平洋中部海温和加利福尼亚附近区域海温的反相变化、南印度洋的异常海温。1981—2010年逐年交叉回报检验和4 a独立样本预测检验均表明，建立的降水预测模型对黑龙江省夏季降水具有较好的预报能力，并在2015年实现业务化，对2015年黑龙江省夏季降水的预测效果较好，具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 夏季降水, 前兆信号, 主成分分析, 逐步回归, 检验

Abstract: The precursor signal of a main mode affecting the summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province was analyzed using the summer precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010,NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data and monthly average sea surface temperature from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) from 1980 to 2015.A statistical precipitation forecasting model for summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province was established based on the principal component regression method.The results show that the abnormal precursor signals affecting the main mode of summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province mainly include the height field in south regions of Novaya Zemlya and the Kara Sea last November,the inverse variation of the sea surface temperature between the central part of North Pacific and California vicinity last winter,and the anomaly sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean.Through yearly cross hindcast and every four year independent sample prediction tests from 1981 to 2010,it indicates that the precipitation forecasting model established here performs very well.It is used in operation and gets a good prediction in the summer precipitation in Heilongjiang province in 2015.It suggests that this model may have the value for the summer prediction.

Key words: Summer precipitation, Precursor signal, Principal Component analysis, Stepwise-multiple linear regression, Test

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