主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 1-9.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.05.001

• 论文 •    下一篇

安徽省ECMWF数值模式降水预报性能的检验

翟振芳, 魏春璇, 邓斌, 纪元   

  1. 合肥市气象局, 安徽 合肥 230041
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-25 修回日期:2017-05-09 出版日期:2017-10-30 发布日期:2017-10-30
  • 作者简介:翟振芳,男,1981年生,工程师,主要从事天气预报研究,E-mail:happycat2552@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省气象局预报员专项“合肥市城市积涝预报系统”（kY201401）资助。

Verification and analysis of rainfall forecasted by the ECMWF model in Anhui province

ZHAI Zhen-fang, WEI Chun-xuan, DENG Bin, JI Yuan   

  1. Hefei Meteorological Service, Hefei 230041, China
  • Received:2016-10-25 Revised:2017-05-09 Online:2017-10-30 Published:2017-10-30

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817

被引次数

1

摘要： 为了了解欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF）数值模式对安徽地区降水预报的性能，提高订正技巧，本文应用风险评分（Threat Score，TS）、预报偏差（BIAS）和去除随机事件后的公平T评分（Equitable Threat Score，ETS）及真实技巧评分（True Skill Statistic，TSS）等方法，对2012年1月至2015年3月安徽省ECMWF数值模式降水场预报资料进行检验。结果表明：ECMWF模式对安徽地区降水的预报性能总体较稳定，年际变化幅度较小。安徽省降水预报的ETS评分总体呈南高北低的空间分布特征，所有气象站降水均存在预报过度的现象。降水预报分级检验表明，小雨量级降水预报评分明显高于其他量级降水，但预报偏差较大，预报过度现象严重；ECMWF模式对72 h时效内的暴雨量级降水预报技巧较小，对于72 h时效后的暴雨量级降水基本没有预报能力。季节降水预报的检验表明，春季、秋季和冬季的48 h时效内晴雨预报的准确率为88%以上，订正空间较小；夏季各时效及春季、秋季和冬季168 h时效以上降水预报的空报率超过60%，可以适度订正；秋季较其他季节降水预报的漏报率略高，尤其是120 h时效以上降水的预报需关注。四季均存在降水预报过度的现象，尤以夏季最突出。ECMWF模式对安徽省降水量为0.1-0.7 mm的格点降水预报空报率较高，订正后可以明显提升预报技巧，但增加了一定漏报风险。

关键词: ECMWF模式, 检验, 降水, TS评分, ETS评分, 预报偏差

Abstract: The rainfall field forecasted by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) model from January of 2012 to March of 2015 in Anhui province was tested using TS (Threat Score),forecasting bias (BIAS),ETS (Equitable Threat Score) after removing random events,and TSS (True Skill Statistic) score methods in order to understand the forecasting performance of the ECMWF model and improve the correction skills.The results show that,in general,the forecasting performance of the ECMWF model in Anhui province is stable and exhibits a little inter-annual variation.There is a spatial distribution feature with high in the south part and low in the north part of the ETS value.All amounts of rainfall in each meteorological station are forecasted excessively.Based on the classification test in the amount of rainfall prediction,it indicates that the forecasting score of sprinkle is significantly higher than that of the other rainfall,while the forecasting bias of sprinkle is higher and the excessive forecasting phenomenon is serious.The model forecasting ability for the rainstorm within 72 h is very limited and the model has no forecast score for the rainstorm beyond 72 h.The accuracy forecasting rate of clear or rain within 48 h in spring,autumn and winter are above 88% with a small room to correct.The rate of false-alarm for forecasting of rainfall in summer and in spring,autumn and winter beyond 168 h is above 60%,and this needs to be corrected accordingly.The rate of missing report of rainfall in autumn is higher than that in the other seasons,especially for the rainfall forecast beyond 120 h.The amount of rainfall in each season is forecasted excessively,especially in summer.The rate of false-alarm of rainfall within 0.1-0.7 mm to the grid prediction is higher.This false-alarm rate can be improved significantly after correction,but it increases the risk of missing report rate.

Key words: ECMWF model, Test, Rainfall, Threat Score (ETS), Equitable Threat Score (ETS), Forecasting bias

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