主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 17-24.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.05.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

环境气象业务数值模式预报效果对比检验

刘慧1, 饶晓琴2, 张恒德2, 李明2, 张志刚1   

  1. 1. 中国气象局预报与网络司, 北京 100081;
    2. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-13 修回日期:2017-01-18 出版日期:2017-10-30 发布日期:2017-10-30
  • 作者简介:刘慧,女,1986年生,工程师,主要从事环境气象和数值预报研究,E-mail:kility0043@sohu.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划课题（2014BAC16B02）和科技部大气污染专项课题（2016YFC0203301）共同资助。

Comparative verification and analysis of environmental meteorology operational numerical prediction models in China

LIU Hui1, RAO Xiao-qin2, ZHANG Heng-de2, LI Ming2, ZHANG Zhi-gang1   

  1. 1. Department of Forecasting and Networking, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-09-13 Revised:2017-01-18 Online:2017-10-30 Published:2017-10-30

PDF (PC)

383

被引次数

4

摘要： 基于华北区域气象中心、华东区域气象中心、华南区域气象中心和国家气象中心环境气象业务数值模式2015年1-3月的预报结果，从能见度和空气质量两个方面对环境气象业务数值模式的预报效果进行了对比检验。结果表明：随着能见度降低，各数值模式的预报能力均逐渐下降，对于<1 km的能见度，仅华北区域模式和国家级雾霾数值预报业务系统（CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment，CUACE）模式表现出一定的预报技巧，其中华北区域模式和CUACE模式对北京本地24 h能见度预报的TS评分分别为0.20、0.10；CUACE模式总体能见度预报误差较各区域数值模式均偏大；CUACE模式和华北区域模式、华东区域模式、华南区域模式能见度预报值与观测值的相关系数普遍低于0.6。随着空气质量下降，各数值模式AQI的预报能力均逐渐下降；AQI为优等级时，各数值模式AQI预报的TS评分均较高，其中空气质量较好的华南地区空气质量等级预报的TS评分最高，为0.81；总体上24 h的AQI预报，区域模式优于CUACE模式；48 h和72 h的AQI预报，CUACE模式优于各区域模式。各数值模式PM2.5浓度的预报值普遍较观测值偏低，华南区域模式24 h的PM2.5浓度预报误差相对较小，华北区域模式和华东区域模式24 h的PM2.5浓度预报误差相对较大；CUACE模式PM2.5浓度的预报误差较各区域模式均偏大，CUACE模式PM2.5浓度预报值与观测值的相关系数较各区域模式均偏低。

关键词: 数值模式, 能见度, AQI, PM2.5, 检验

Abstract: Based on the visibility and air quality results from January to March in 2015 forecasted by four environmental meteorology operational numerical models from the North China,East China and South China Regional Meteorological Centers and the National Meteorological Center,respectively,their forecasting quality was verified.The results show that with the decrease of visibility,these models' forecasting quality gradually reduces.When the visibility is less than 1 km,only models from the North China Regional Meteorological Center and the national fog and haze numerical forecasting operational system-CUACE (CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment) exhibit a certain forecasting skill;the TS to 24 h visibility prediction in Beijing are 0.20 and 0.10,respectively.Generally speaking,the visibility prediction error of the CUACE model is larger than those of regional meteorological centers' models,and the correlation coefficient of observations with the predictions is less than 0.6.Similarly,with the decrease of air quality,these models' prediction quality to AQI (Air Quality Index) gradually reduces.When the AQI is at the excellent rank,the TS are higher;and due to the good air condition in South China,its TS score for AQI prediction is the highest.In general,for the 24 h AQI prediction,the forecasting qualities of the regional centers' models are superior to that of the CUACE model,and for the 48 h and 72 h ones,the situation is opposite.The values of PM2.5 concentration forecasted by these models are normally lower than those of observations.The error of 24 h PM2.5 concentration forecasted by the South China Regional Meteorological Center's model is relatively small,and those forecasted by the North China and East China Regional Meteorological Center's models are comparatively larger.For the prediction of PM2.5 concentration,the performance of the CUACE model is the worst among these models,with a lower correlation coefficient between the predictions and observations.

Key words: Numerical model, Visibility, Air Quality Index (AQI), PM2.5, Verification

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