基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.001

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 1-9.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.001

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基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善

马申佳^1,2,3, 何宏让^1,3, 陈超辉^1,3, 吴丹^1,4, 陈圣劼⁵

1. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 江苏南京 211101;
2. 解放军78127部队, 四川成都 610031;
3. 南京大气科学联合研究中心, 江苏南京 210009;
4. 解放军31631部队, 广东惠州 516200;
5. 江苏省气象台, 江苏南京 210008

收稿日期:2017-10-30 修回日期:2017-12-18 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
通讯作者: 何宏让,男,教授,E-mail:hehongrang@aliyun.com。 E-mail:hehongrang@aliyun.com
作者简介:马申佳,男,1994年生,硕士研究生,主要从事对流尺度集合预报研究,E-mail:masj_nj@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（41205073、41675007）、国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1501803）和南京大气科学联合研究中心面上项目（NJCAR2016MS02）。

Simulation and improvement on structural characteristics of a squall line based on convection-allowing ensemble forecast

MA Shen-jia^1,2,3, HE Hong-rang^1,3, CHEN Chao-hui^1,3, WU Dan^1,4, CHEN Sheng-jie⁵

1. College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;
2. Unit 78127 of People's Liberation Army, Chengdu 610031, China;
3. Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research (NJCAR), Nanjing 210009, China;
4. 31631 Troops of People's Liberation Army, Huizhou 516200, China;
5. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China

Received:2017-10-30 Revised:2017-12-18 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对流尺度集合预报是研究飑线等强对流天气的新方向。当前对飑线系统结构的研究主要采用卫星和雷达资料结合高分辨率确定性预报的方法，而本文从集合预报技术的角度分析飑线结构特征。针对2014年7月30日中国江淮地区的一次强飑线过程，利用WRF模式开展了对流尺度集合预报试验，采用概率匹配平均法对集合预报结果进行综合处理，重点考察集合预报对飑线结构特征的模拟能力。结果表明：对流尺度集合预报能够模拟出飑线系统的基本结构特征。集合平均和概率匹配平均法相比控制预报而言，对飑线回波、热力场、动力场和微物理量场结构有明显的改善作用。同时模拟出了飑线系统近地面冷池和环境垂直风切变的相互作用，与RKW理论相一致。概率匹配平均法在回波强度上较集合平均更接近实况，应用于对流尺度集合预报研究极端天气事件具有指示意义。

关键词: 飑线, 对流尺度集合预报, 概率匹配平均法, 结构特征

Abstract:

The convection-allowing ensemble forecast is a new direction for studying strong convective weather,such as squall lines.The current research on the structural characteristics of squall systems is mainly based on the high-resolution deterministic forecast combined with the satellite and radar data.In this paper,the structure of the squall line was analyzed from the perspective of ensemble forecast technology.A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was conducted for a strong squall line in eastern China on July 30,2014.The probability matched mean (PMM) method was used to analyze synthetically the modelling results and verify the ability to simulate structural characteristics of the squall line.The results indicated that the convection-allowing ensemble forecast is able to simulate the basic structural characteristics of the squall line system.Compared with control prediction,the ensemble mean (EM) and PMM methods can improve significantly the structure of echo,a thermal field,dynamic field and microphysical field for the squall line.The modelling results also reflect the interaction between the near-surface cold pool and the vertical wind shear in the squall line system,which is consistent with the RKW theory.The echo intensity obtained from the PMM method is more close to the observations than that by the EM method,which means that it has a guiding significance to use the PMM method to study extreme weather events in the convection-allowing ensemble forecast.

Key words: Squall line, Convection-allowing ensemble forecast, Probability matched mean (PMM) method, Structural characteristics

中图分类号:

P435

马申佳, 何宏让, 陈超辉, 吴丹, 陈圣劼. 基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35(1): 1-9.

MA Shen-jia, HE Hong-rang, CHEN Chao-hui, WU Dan, CHEN Sheng-jie. Simulation and improvement on structural characteristics of a squall line based on convection-allowing ensemble forecast[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 1-9.

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基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善

Simulation and improvement on structural characteristics of a squall line based on convection-allowing ensemble forecast

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