主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

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ECMWF模式副热带高压指数释用产品的应用

王瀛1;王茜2;陈宇1;吴曼丽1   

  1. 1.沈阳中心气象台 沈阳110016;2.辽宁省气象影视中心 沈阳110016

  • 收稿日期:2007-04-29 修回日期:2007-07-10 出版日期:2007-10-01 发布日期:2007-10-01

Application of subtropical high index from ECMWF model

WANG Ying1 WANG Qian2 CHEN Yu1 WU Manli1   

  1. 1.Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory;Shenyang 110016;2.Liaoning Meteorological VideoCenter;Shenyang 110016
  • Received:2007-04-29 Revised:2007-07-10 Online:2007-10-01 Published:2007-10-01

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摘要： 应用2006年6—8月欧洲中心数值预报资料,从计算出的副热带高压面积指数、强度指数和西伸脊点、脊线位置及北界位置分析入手,对副热带高压的特征预报进行统计学检验和误差对比分析。结果表明:基于欧洲中心数值预报模式的计算产品对于副热带高压的预报在96 h内误差较小,120—168 h误差较大,副热带高压的预报总体上呈现强度偏强、面积偏大、西脊点偏西和脊线及北界偏北的误差特点。

关键词: ECMWF模式, 副热带高压指数, 释用产品, 检验分析

Abstract: Based on the products of ECMWF model from June to August 2006,the area index,the intensity index,the location of the western ridge point,the locations of ridge line and the north boundary of subtropical high were analyzed,and the prediction results of subtropical high characteristic indices were tested and the errors were checked.The results indicated that the errors of subtropical high prediction based on ECMWF model within 96 hours were small,while the error within 120-168 hours increased obviously.Compared with the observation results,the intensities and the area of subtropical high prediction were over larger,and the western ridge point was moved to the west,while the ridge line and the north boundary were moved to the north.