我国东北夏季气温年代际变化特征及与太平洋海温异常关系的研究

气象与环境学报

我国东北夏季气温年代际变化特征及与太平洋海温异常关系的研究

李菲¹;李辑²;管兆勇³

1.南京信息工程大学大气科学系，江苏南京 210044;2.沈阳区域气候中心，辽宁沈阳 110016;3.南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害重点实验室，江苏南京 210044

收稿日期:2010-03-18 修回日期:2010-04-08 出版日期:2010-06-29 发布日期:2010-06-29

Inter-decadal variations of summer temperature in Northeast China and relationships with Pacific SSTA

LI Fei¹;LI Ji²;GUAN Zhao-yong³

1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110016, China;3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2010-03-18 Revised:2010-04-08 Online:2010-06-29 Published:2010-06-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1951—2008年东北地区夏季平均气温资料，分析了东北地区近58 a来东北地区夏季气温的变化趋势和突变特征，结果表明，东北夏季气温存在明显年代际变化的阶段性特征和总体增暖的趋势。对我国东北夏季气温与太平洋海温的相关分析表明，太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)由冷位相转为暖位相后，我国东北夏季气温与同期赤道中东太平洋海温相关减弱、与黑潮区海温相关增强，我国东北夏季气温与前期各季太平洋海温相关分布差异很大，海温关键区及相关强度都有所改变，这种相关关系的转变可能是造成近几年来利用太平洋海温预测我国东北夏季气温不确定性的原因之一。

关键词: 中国东北, 夏季气温, 年代际变化, 太平洋海温, 太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)

Abstract: Based on mean summer temperature in Northeast China from 1951 to 2008, the trend and abrupt change of summer temperature were analyzed. The results show that inter-decadal characteristics of summer temperature are obvious. In general, summer temperature takes on the increasing trend. The relationships between summer temperature in Northeast China and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are discussed. It indicates that the correlation of summer temperature in Northeast China with summer SST of the middle-east Pacific becomes weak after Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) changes from cold phase to warm phase, while that is strong with SST of Kuroshio current region. The correlations between summer temperature in Northeast China and earlier stage Pacific SST in different seasons exist the obvious difference, and the key areas of SST and relative intensity also change. These variations could become one of reasons leading to uncertainty of summer temperature forecast of Northeast China with Pacific SST in recent years.

中图分类号:

P466

李菲,李辑,管兆勇. 我国东北夏季气温年代际变化特征及与太平洋海温异常关系的研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, doi: .

LI Fei;LI Ji;GUAN Zhao-yong. Inter-decadal variations of summer temperature in Northeast China and relationships with Pacific SSTA[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, doi: .

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