关键词: 脑血管病, 气象因子, 预报模型

Abstract:

Based on the number of the cerebrovascular patients obtained from Panjin center for disease control and prevention during 2008-2009 and the synchronous meteorological data, the relationship between cerebrovascular disease and meteorological elements, a meteorological forecasting model on the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend was established by methods of a correlative analysis and a stepwise regression. The results indicate that there is a relatively good correlation between the meteorological elements and the moving average of the number of the cerebrovascular patients in the coming three days. The impacts of the meteorological factors on the number of the cerebrovascular patients have the hysteresis and persistency effects. The number of the cerebrovascular patients has obvious correlation with the meteorological elements such as the daily minimum air temperature, average air temperature, the minimum pressure, average wind speed, humidity, and the maximum daily temperature range and so on. The number of the cerebrovascular patients is affected by different hypersensitive meteorological factors in different seasons, and the correlations between them differ greatly. The tests have shown that the accurate rates of the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend model are relatively high.

Key words: Cerebrovascular disease, Meteorological factors, Prediction model