主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 62-67.doi:

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国典型大雾落区基本概念模型的研究与建立

马晓刚1 罗思维2 舒海燕1 张旭1 张宏霞1 葛林3 沈南4 吴文杰5   

  1. 1. 阜新市气象局，辽宁 阜新 123099；2. 朝阳市气象局，辽宁 朝阳 122000；3.沈阳市气象局，辽宁 沈阳 110168；4. 岫岩县气象局，辽宁 岫岩 114300；5. 庄河市气象局，辽宁 庄河 116400
  • 出版日期:2013-02-28 发布日期:2013-02-28

Study and establishment on conceptual model of heavy fog falling area in China

MA Xiao-gang1 LUO Si-wei2 SHU Hai-yan1 ZHANG Xu1 ZHANG Hong-xia1 GE Lin3 SHEN Nan4 WU Wen-jie4   

  1. 1. Fuxin Meteorological Service, Fuxin 123099, China; 2. Chaoyang Meteorological Service, Chaoyang 122000, China; 3. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China; 4. Xiuyan Meteorological Service, Xiuyan 114300, China; 5. Zhuanghe Meteorological Service, Zhuanghe 116400, China
  • Online:2013-02-28 Published:2013-02-28

PDF (PC)

903

被引次数

9

摘要： 利用MICAPS气象信息综合分析处理系统的历史气象资料，根据大雾形成的物理机制，对2008—2010年发生在中国典型区域大雾天气个例中主要影响因子进行分析，得出7个有利于区域大雾产生的因子。结果表明：7个因子中，逆温层厚度为20—200 hPa；地面温度露点差多小于1 ℃，前一日多小于3℃；近地面湿空气厚度0.05—0.70 km；逆温层极值点0 ℃线是雾淞产生特征线；地面偏南风风速为2—6 m·s-1；气温为-15.0～20.0 ℃，其中，-5.0～5.0 ℃占比例最大，0 ℃线是大雾发生的特征线；变性或减弱的高气压。7个因子均有12—24 h的超前特征，经过叠加，构成了“大雾落区基本概念模型”。根据模型建立了大雾落区预报业务系统。理论检验表明，区域大雾预报时效可提前到12—24 h，24 h区域大雾预报准确率为87.5 %。

关键词: 大雾落区, 概念模型, 业务系统

Abstract: Based on the historical meteorological data from the meteorological information comprehensive analysis processing system (MICAPS), the main influencing factors in the typical regional heavy fog weather cases from 2008 to 2010 were analyzed by the physical mechanism of heavy fog formation. Seven factors that were favorable to the formation of heavy fog were selected. The results indicate that there are some certain features for sever factors, namely, the inversion layer thickness is 20-200 hPa; the ground temperature dew point difference is mostly less than 1 ℃, and it is mostly less than 3 ℃ on the previous day; the surface wet air thickness is 0.05-0.70 km; the inversion layer high point 0 ℃ line is the feature line of rime occurrence; the wind speed of southerly wind near  the ground is 2 to 6 m? s-1; air temperature is from -15 ℃ to 20 ℃ and most of temperature are between – 5.0 ℃ and 5.0 ℃, and 0 ℃ line is the feature line of fog occurrence; high pressure degenerates or weakens. These characters could be found 12 to 24 h earlier. Therefore, a heavy fog falling area conceptual model is established, so is a corresponding forecast system according to the model. Test shows that regional fog forecast can be advanced by 12 to 24 h, and the accuracy rate of 24 h regional fog forecast can reach 87.5 %.

Key words: Fog falling area, Concept model, Operational system