吉林省水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险评价与区划

气象与环境学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 103-107.doi:

吉林省水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险评价与区划

王冬妮郭春明刘实晏晓英

吉林省气象科学研究所，吉林长春 130062

出版日期:2013-02-28 发布日期:2013-02-28

Evaluation and division on climatic risk of rice delayed cool damage in Jilin province

WANG Dong-ni GUO Chun-ming LIU Shi YAN Xiao-ying

Jilin Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Changchun 130062, China

Online:2013-02-28 Published:2013-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 吉林省是全国主要的水稻产区之一，研究水稻延迟型冷害发生规律及风险性，对于防御冷害和保证水稻安全生产意义重大。基于1961—2008年吉林省46站平均气温资料，建立包括生长季热量变异系数、冷害发生频率、冷害风险指数和冷害发生气候概率4个指标在内的指标体系，对水稻延迟型低温冷害风险进行评估。将4个评价指标进行极差标准化，采用等权重求平均，得到水稻低温冷害气候风险综合指标；将吉林省划分成高、次高、中等、次低和低5个水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险区域。结果表明：吉林省的东部延边、白山多数地区低温冷害的风险性较大；西部地区大部、四平大部和通化南部低温冷害的风险性较小。

关键词: 水稻, 低温冷害, 气候风险, 区划, 水稻, 低温冷害, 气候风险, 区划

Abstract: Jilin province is one of the major rice production areas in China. The rules of rice delayed cool damage and its risks were studied in order to prevent the damage and protect rice food safety. Based on the mean air temperature data at 46 weather stations from 1961 to 2008 in Jilin province, an index system was built, including heat variable coefficient during growing period, cool disaster frequency and its risk index as well as its climatic risk probability, and the risk of low temperature cool damage was assessed. Four indices were standardized using an extreme difference value method, and the synthetic index of climatic risk of rice low temperature cool damage was obtained by an equal weight method. The study areas were divided into five climatic risk areas of rice low temperature cool damage, i.e. the highest area, the high area, the middle area, the low area and the lowest area. The results indicate that the higher risk area is located in the east of Jilin province such as Yanbian, Baishan, and the lower one is in the most west of Jilin province, most Siping area and the south of Tonghua.

Key words: rice, chilling damage, climate risk, zonation, Rice, Low temperature cool damage, Climate risk, Division

王冬妮,郭春明,刘实,晏晓英. 吉林省水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险评价与区划[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2013, 29(1): 103-107.

WANG Dong-ni,GUO Chun-ming,LIU Shi,YAN Xiao-ying. Evaluation and division on climatic risk of rice delayed cool damage in Jilin province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(1): 103-107.

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