High value area of K index,Low value area of K index,Energy front,"/> <em>K</em>指数在黑龙江省晴雨预报中的应用
主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 145-149.doi:

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K指数在黑龙江省晴雨预报中的应用

赵 玲1 李树岭2 王安娜3 冯琦3 吕爽3   

  1. 1.黑龙江省气象台，黑龙江 哈尔滨  150030；2.哈尔滨市气象局，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150028；3.绥化市气象局，黑龙江  绥化152002
  • 出版日期:2013-12-31 发布日期:2013-12-31

Application of K index on rain or shine weather forecast in Heilongjiang province

ZHAO Ling1 LI Shu -ling2 WANG An -na 3 FENG Qi 3 LV Shuang3   

  1. 1. Heilongjiang Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, China; 2. Harbin Meteorological Service, Harbin 150028, China; 3. Suihua Meteorological Service, Suihua 152002, China
  • Online:2013-12-31 Published:2013-12-31

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摘要： 低层相对湿度和风场等物理量场对降水的有无有较高的预报能力，但仍存在空报和漏报现象，为了提高黑龙江省晴雨天气预报准确率，对黑龙江省大量有降水和无降水天气成因进行对比分析。结果表明：K指数时空分布特点对晴雨预报有指示意义，尤其对分析低层相对湿度小或风场辐合条件差等容易出现降水空报和漏报等疑难降水成因有较好的辅助作用。K指数高值中心区或高能舌区易出现降水；K指数梯度较大区或较强能量锋也会触发降水；K指数低值中心区发生降水的可能性较小。不同季节有无降水的K指数高值区和低值区的阈值不同。

关键词: K指数高值区, K指数低值区, 能量锋

Abstract: Although the relative humidity and wind field in lower atmosphere were very effective to forecast rain or shine weather, there were still some missing or false-alarm forecasts. In order to improve the accuracy rates of rain or shine weather forecast in Heilongjiang province, the forming reasons of weather cases with and without rain were analyzed. The results indicate that the temporal and spatial distributions of K index are indicative to rain or shine weather forecast, and could help to forecast the complex weather condition in which relative humidity in low level is small or wind convergence is poor, which are easy to lead to a missing or false-alarm forecast. Precipitation often appears in the high value center area or high energy tongue area of K index and in the strong K index gradient area or energy front, while it is seldom in the low value center area of K index. The threshold values with or without rain in the high and low values area of K index vary in different seasons.

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