主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 80-84.doi:

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽宁暴雨致灾指标及灾害影响预评估

韩秀君1  孙晓巍1  李爽1  王明华1  李广霞1  陈宇1 王桂春2
   

  1. 1．沈阳中心气象台，辽宁 沈阳 110166；2．大连市金州区气象局，辽宁 大连 116600
  • 出版日期:2014-12-30 发布日期:2014-12-30

Disaster-causing index of rainstorm and pre-assessment of disaster effect in Liaoning province

HAN Xiu-jun1  SUN Xiao-wei1  LI Shuang1  WANG Ming-hua1  LI Guang-xia1  CHEN Yu1  WANG Gui-chun2   

  1. 1.Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166 China; 2. Jinzhou District of Dalian Meteorological Service, Dalian 116600, China
  • Online:2014-12-30 Published:2014-12-30

PDF (PC)

423

被引次数

15

摘要：

利用1951—2012年辽宁暴雨过程及暴雨灾情资料，对辽宁暴雨灾害特征及暴雨灾害评估进行分析，并应用统计分析方法，建立暴雨致灾指标与灾害影响预评估的关系。结果表明：1951—2012年辽宁年平均暴雨日数分布为自东南向西北逐渐减少；辽宁暴雨灾害发生频率分布为自中部向西北逐渐增多，灾害发生频率最高的地区为辽宁西部地区，其中朝阳喀左县暴雨灾害发生频率最高，占该站暴雨总次数的73%；辽宁西部等地区暴雨灾害发生频率较高，但降水强度较小，且发生一级和二级暴雨灾害的概率低于其他地区；而除辽西地区外，其他地区暴雨灾害发生频率略低，但降水强度大。辽宁受暴雨灾害影响最大的受灾体为农作物及设施，辽阳地区受灾频率最大，占该地区受灾过程总数的95%以上。辽宁暴雨灾害可划分为暴雨灾害易发区、较易发区和一般易发区。

关键词: 致灾指标, 暴雨灾害, 影响预评估, 决策气象服务

Abstract:

Based on rainstorm processes and disaster data in Liaoning proince from 1951 to 2012, characteristics of rainstorm disaster and its assessment were analyzed. Relationship between disaster-causing index and assessment of disaster effect was investigate using a statistic analysis method. The?results?show?that the number of annual average rainstorm days in Liaoning province gradually reduces from southeast to northwest during 1951 to 2012. Frequency of rainstorm disaster gradually increases from the middle to northwest, especially in the western Liaoning province, for example, rainstorm disasters account for 73% of total rainstorm events in Kazuo County of Chaoyang. Rainstorm frequency is high and precipitation intensity is weak in the western of Liaoning province, while it is contrary in other areas. Also, probability of rainstorm disaster with the first and second grades is lower in the west than other areas. Effect of rainstorm disaster on crop and its facilities is most significant. Frequency of affected disaster is the highest in Liaoyang area, and it is 95% of total disaster events. Rainstorm disaster can be divided into three grades, i.e. high area, middle area and low area.

Key words: Disaster-causing index, Rainstorm disaster, Pre-assessment of effect, Policy decision meteorological service