2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.009

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 66-71.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.009

2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

孙仕强¹, 鹿文涵^1,2, 郭建民¹, 钱燕珍¹, 卢晶晶¹

1. 宁波市气象局, 浙江宁波 315012;
2. 南京信息工程大学大气环境中心, 江苏南京 210044

收稿日期:2017-09-21 修回日期:2018-01-04 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
作者简介:孙仕强,男,1987年生,工程师,主要从事城市气象环境及天气预报方向研究,E-mail:sunshiqiang20@126.com。
基金资助:
宁波市科技局科技惠民计划项目（2015C50056）资助。

Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of heat stroke and the influence of heat wave on it in Ningbo city from 2012 to 2016

SUN Shi-qiang¹, LU Wen-han^1,2, GUO Jian-min¹, QIAN Yan-zhen¹, LU Jing-jing¹

1. Ningbo Meteorological Service, Ningbo 315012, China;
2. Yale-NUIST Center on Atmospheric Environment of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2017-09-21 Revised:2018-01-04 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市高温热浪事件严重影响人体健康和生命安全已成共识。利用宁波市2012-2016年中暑病例数据和同期气候数据对宁波市夏半年中暑流行特征及热浪对其的影响作了相关分析。结果表明：2012-2016年，2012年和2013年中暑人数最多，并集中在6-8月，其中7月人数最多占比55.3%；男性中暑概率明显高于女性，中暑程度主要集中在轻度中暑，31-60岁年龄段中暑人数占比最高，市区中暑人数占比要高于郊区（县）；用温湿两要素结合的炎热指数和热浪公式定义宁波热浪过程，发现热浪天数和中暑人数的相关系数高达0.898，选出7次热浪过程计算热浪中暑的相对危险度，发现除2013年以外其他年份热浪中暑的相对危险度均在10以下，2013年的3次热浪中暑的相对危险度分别为18.1、21.6和25.8，这与2013年热浪出现相对频繁集中有关；同时通过这7次热浪过程的前、后段热浪中暑的相对危险度的比较，并未见明显的热浪滞后效应存在。

关键词: 高温热浪, 中暑人数, 相对危险度, 滞后效应

Abstract:

It has been a common understanding that urban heat wave events seriously affect human health and life safety.Based on the data of heat stroke cases in Ningbo city and the corresponding climate data from 2012 to 2016,a correlation analysis was made on the prevalence characteristics of heatstroke in summer and the impact of the heat wave on the heat stroke in Ningbo city.The results show that the number of heatstrokes is the highest in 2012 and 2013,and is concentrated in June to August,of which the percentage ratio is 55.3% in July.The incidence of heat stroke in males is significantly higher than that in females,and the degree of heat stroke is mainly concentrated in mild heat stroke.The proportion of heat stroke among people aged 31-60 is the highest,and the proportion of heat stroke in urban areas is higher than that in suburban areas.With two elements in combination with the heat index of temperature humidity and heat wave formula defined the Ningbo heat process,we find that the correlation coefficient of heat number and heat number is as high as 0.898.Seven heat processes were selected to calculate the heat stroke relative risk,it’s found that except 2013 the heat stroke relative risk index (RR) is under 10 in each year.The RR values corresponding to the three heat strokes in 2013 are 18.1,21.6 and 25.8,respectively,which are related to high frequency of heat wave in this year.Through comparing the relative risk of heat stroke before and after the seven heat wave events,no significant heat lag effect is found.

Key words: Heatwave, Number of heat stroke, Relative risk, Lag effect

中图分类号:

孙仕强, 鹿文涵, 郭建民, 钱燕珍, 卢晶晶. 2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35(1): 66-71.

SUN Shi-qiang, LU Wen-han, GUO Jian-min, QIAN Yan-zhen, LU Jing-jing. Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of heat stroke and the influence of heat wave on it in Ningbo city from 2012 to 2016[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 66-71.

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2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of heat stroke and the influence of heat wave on it in Ningbo city from 2012 to 2016

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