时空投影模型在东北夏季降水延伸期预报中的应用和检验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.01.004

气象与环境学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 27-36.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.01.004

时空投影模型在东北夏季降水延伸期预报中的应用和检验

苏小琁^1,²(),孙晓巍^2,*(),张宸赫²,李嘉琦³,路增鑫^4,⁵,杨旭^4,⁵

1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁沈阳 110166
2. 辽宁省气象台, 辽宁沈阳 110166
3. 沈阳市辽中区气象局, 辽宁沈阳 110299
4. 吉林省气象科学研究所, 吉林长春 130062
5. 长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室, 吉林长春 130062

收稿日期:2022-10-11 出版日期:2024-02-28 发布日期:2024-03-25
通讯作者: 孙晓巍 E-mail:2596853173@qq.com;lnsqxt-sunxiaowei@163.com
作者简介:苏小琁，女，1997年生，助理工程师，主要从事气候预测方面研究，E-mail: 2596853173@qq.com
基金资助:
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题(2023SYIAEKFMS12);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022P005);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J007);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z085);吉林省气象局技术发展专项(202101)

Application and verification of the spatiotemporal projection model in the extended-range forecast of summer precipitation in Northeast China

Xiaoxuan SU^1,²(),Xiaowei SUN^2,*(),Chenhe ZHANG²,Jia-qi LI³,Zengxin LU^4,⁵,Xu YANG^4,⁵

1. Institute of Atmosphere Environment, CMA, Shenyang 110166, China
2. Liaoning Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166, China
3. Meteorological Service in Liaozhong District of Shenyang 110299, China
4. Jilin Institute of Meteorological Science, Changchun 130062, China
5. Jilin Provincial key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain & Climate Change, Changchun 130062, China

Received:2022-10-11 Online:2024-02-28 Published:2024-03-25
Contact: Xiaowei SUN E-mail:2596853173@qq.com;lnsqxt-sunxiaowei@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1979—2021年东北地区逐日降水数据和NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料，采用旋转经验正交函数分解、集合经验模态分解，分析了东北夏季低频降水的历史规律，结合低频降水及其相关的大气季节内振荡，利用时空投影模型(STPM)对低频降水进行延伸期预报。结果表明：东北地区低频降水有明显的地域性差异，不同区域低频降水的周期有明显的年际变化，周期以10~40 d为主，40~80 d为辅。10~40 d低频降水的预报关键信号为热带大气季节内振荡、欧亚遥相关、丝绸之路遥相关低频波列和西太平洋附近的纬向风场；40~80 d低频降水的预报信号则主要来自东北地区周边的要素场。对东北地区不同频段降水的低频分量进行延伸期逐候回报试验表明，预报能力随提前预报时间的增加而降低。10~40 d低频降水分量的预测时效为10 d；40~80 d低频降水显示出了较高的预报技巧，预报时效可达30 d左右。

关键词: 延伸期预报, 低频降水, 季节内振荡

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR ((National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)) atmospheric reanalysis data in Northeast China from 1979 to 2021, the historical rule of low-frequency precipitation in summer in Northeast China was analyzed using rotating empirical orthogonal function decomposition and ensemble empirical mode decomposition, combined with low-frequency precipitation and its related atmospheric intra-seasonal oscillation.A spatiotemporal projection model (STPM) was used to forecast the extended period of low frequency precipitation. The results show that there are obvious regional differences of low frequency precipitation in Northeast China, and the period of low frequency precipitation in different regions has obvious inter-annual variation, with the period of 10~40 days as the main and 40~80 days as the secondary. The key signals of low-frequency precipitation forecast from 10 to 40 days are tropical atmospheric intra-seasonal oscillation, Eurasian teleconnection, low-frequency wave train of Silk Road teleconnection and zonal wind field near the western Pacific Ocean. The low-frequency precipitation forecast signals from 40 to 80 days mainly come from the factor fields around Northeast China. The experiment on the extension period of the low-frequency precipitation of different frequency bands in Northeast China shows that the forecast ability decreases with the increase of advance forecast time. The predicted validity of low-frequency precipitation for 10~40 days is 10 days. The low frequency precipitation of 40~80 days shows a high forecasting skill, and the forecasting validity can reach about 30 days.

Key words: Extended-range forecast, Low-frequency precipitation, Intraseasonal oscillations

中图分类号:

P456.2

苏小琁,孙晓巍,张宸赫,李嘉琦,路增鑫,杨旭. 时空投影模型在东北夏季降水延伸期预报中的应用和检验[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2024, 40(1): 27-36.

Xiaoxuan SU,Xiaowei SUN,Chenhe ZHANG,Jia-qi LI,Zengxin LU,Xu YANG. Application and verification of the spatiotemporal projection model in the extended-range forecast of summer precipitation in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(1): 27-36.

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区域	10~40 d预报关键区
1	OLR 10°S~20°N, 90°~130°E	U850 10°~60°N, 110°E ~180°
2	H200 50°~70°N, 40°E ~180°	OLR 30°~50°N, 110°~160°E
3	H200 20°~40°N, 110°~140°E	U200 10°~50°N, 110°~160°E
4	OLR 10°S~10°N, 100°~170°E	U850 15°~55°N, 100°~160°E

区域	40~80 d预报关键区
1	H200 30°~50°N, 90°E~180°	OLR 10°~60°N, 110°E~10°W	U200 10°~60°N, 100°E~10°W
2	H200 10°~70°N, 90°E~180°	U200 25°~75°N, 40°E~180°	shum700 50°~70°N, 90°E~180°
3	H200 10°~50°N, 40°E~20°W	U200 10°~50°N, 50°~150°E	OLR 0°~20°N, 50°~80°E
4	OLR 30°~60°N, 110°E~10°W	U200 10°~60°N, 110°~180°E	shum700 30°~70°N, 120°~170°E

[1]	信飞,陈伯民,孙国武. 上海梅汛期强降水的低频特征及延伸期预报[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2014, 30(6): 61-67.
[2]	朱红蕊,刘赫男,张洪玲,王春华. 热带大气季节内振荡与2008年初中国南方雪灾的关系[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2013, 29(4): 77-83.

时空投影模型在东北夏季降水延伸期预报中的应用和检验

Application and verification of the spatiotemporal projection model in the extended-range forecast of summer precipitation in Northeast China

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