关键词: 短期气候, 波动理论, 灾害诊断预测, 理论研究

Abstract: The analysis of recent 50 years data in Liaoning Province indicated that the short term climatic change resulted radically from three important factors of cliamtic formation,i.e.solar radiation,atmospheric circulation and annually abnormal fluctuation of geographical environment.Three important factors of climatic formation were also the physical basis of diagnosing and forecasting meteorological disaster years.Based on the fluctuation theory,we can not only diagnose the climate disaster during the studied year,but also forecast the trend of climate change in the following 3-5 years.