主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

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基于概率分析的暴雨事件快速评估模型

陈艳秋;袁子鹏;盛永;戴廷仁   

  1. 辽宁省气象台 沈阳110016
  • 收稿日期:2006-05-17 修回日期:2006-08-15 出版日期:2006-10-01 发布日期:2006-10-01

A rapid assessment model of torrential rain event based on probability analysis

CHEN Yanqiu YUAN Zipeng SHENG Yong DAI Tingren   

  1. Liaoning Meteorological Observatory;Shengyang 110016
  • Received:2006-05-17 Revised:2006-08-15 Online:2006-10-01 Published:2006-10-01

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摘要： 通过对区域性暴雨事件历史资料的统计分析,利用平均降水量、降水强度和覆盖范围3个指标,建立了基于距离函数的暴雨事件快速评估模型。在建模过程中,对每个指标进行了正态化转化和正态性检验,并利用正态分布概率密度函数确立了各指标数年一遇的等级标准。采用定义域平移的办法,对模型中各指标的权重系数进行了调整。另外,应用此模型对2005年汛期3次区域性暴雨灾害进行了评估应用,结果表明,决策服务效果较好。

关键词: 概率分析, 暴雨事件, 评估模型, 距离函数

Abstract: Based on the statistical analysis of regional torrential rain events,a rapid assessment model of torrential rain event was established by the controlling factors(average precipitation,rain intensity and cover range),and the distance function was employed.These factors were normalized and divided into different degrees according to the probability density function of the normal distribution.The weights of the controlling factors were determined by the movement of definition area(DA).In terms of the assessment model,3 regional torrential rain events during the flood season in 2005 were assessed.The results showed that the model was suitable for the assessment of torrential rain event.