不同地区温度变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病影响的比较研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.03.012

Abstract

Abstract: The influences of the variations of ambient temperature,daily temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (ΔT₂₄),respectively,on the inducement of ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (ICCVD) were investigated.Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to analyze the exposure-response relationships between ICCVD inpatients and changes of ambient temperature,DTR and ΔT₂₄ in Fu'nan and Jinping County in Anhui province from 2015 to 2016,respectively.The results demonstrated that when DTR fluctuates more than 15℃,the ICCVD relative risk surges instantaneously and shows an immediate effect.Finally,the risk reaches a peak value of overlapping effect with lagging days and DTR increasing.In addition,the ICCVD relative risk increases obviously and indicates a significant immediate effect when the decreasing amplitudes of ΔT₂₄ are over 7℃ and 10℃,respectively.Statistical analysis results demonstrate that the probability of reaching the above-mentioned thresholds in the two counties is higher in spring than in other seasons.Therefore,it is simultaneously discovered that the amounts of ICCVD inpatients in Fu'nan and Jinping Counties tend to reach the peaks in spring,especially from Rain Water to Ching Ming in the lunar calendar.Notably,the amount of the inpatients in Jinping county located in the west of Anhui province in summer is also numerous.Moreover,periodically increasing of the amount of ICCVD inpatients is ascribed by two main weather and climate factors,that is,the cooling process and the alternation of the solar terms.

Key words: Ischemic cerebro-cardiovascular diseases(ICCVD), Temperature change between neighboring days(ΔT₂₄), Daily temperature range(DTR), Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM)

CLC Number:

TAN Yu-long, YIN Ling, WANG Shi-gong, CHEN Lei, TAN Yuan-wen, KANG Yan-zhen. Comparative research of the effects of temperature change on ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different regions[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(3): 94-99.

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Comparative research of the effects of temperature change on ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different regions

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