Abstract: Based on the climate scenarios materials outputted from the NorESM1-M model,the agro-ecological zones model was driven for analyzing the spring maize climate potential productivity in northeast China under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid-21st century.The results show that compared with the baseline period during 1981-2010,the heat condition is improved under RCP2.6 scenario with annual mean temperature and accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ increasing 1.72℃ and 359.6℃·d,respectively.The precipitation slightly shows an increasing trend with an averaged increase of 56.9 mm over the studied area and the trend is larger in the south than in the north,while evapotranspiration increases by 10.0 mm.Meanwhile,the area with the largest climate potential productivity is distributed in the east Liaoning.The yield per unit area in Liaoning increases by 1100 kg/ha or more relative to the baseline period.Under RCP8.5 scenario,the heat resource in northeast China is further improved.More specifically,the accumulated temperatures ≥ 10℃ in Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces increase by 652.7℃·d,636.3℃·d,and 683.9℃·d,respectively.In addition,compared with RCP2.6 scenario,the precipitation increases and demonstrates a large spatial variability and the production maintains an increasing trend and increases by 3.3%,8.1% and 20.0% in Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,respectively.

Key words: Climate change, Northeast China, Climate potential productivity, Spring maize