主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

Journal of Meteorology and Environment ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 40-51.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.05.006

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Prediction of changes in mean and extreme climate events in Northeast China under different warming scenarios

Xue AO1(),Qing-fei ZHAI2,*(),Yan CUI1,Chun-yu ZHAO1,Tao WANG1,Xiao-yu ZHOU1,Yi-ling HOU1   

  1. 1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166, China
    2. Liaoning Weather Modification Office, Shenyang 110166, China
  • Received:2019-12-18 Online:2020-10-30 Published:2020-09-09
  • Contact: Qing-fei ZHAI E-mail:aoxuefyh@163.com;15840322495@163.com

Abstract:

Using the daily temperature and precipitation data from the regional climate model RegCM4, the changes in the average climate and extreme climate events in the Northeast China region under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ heating scenarios were estimated.The results show that under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) emission scenario, the model is expected to stabilize 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warmings around 2030 and 2044.Under the two warming scenarios, the temperature, accumulated temperature, and the length of the growing season in the Northeast China all show an increasing trend.The increasing rate increases with the increase in the warming threshold.In the case of 1.5℃ warmings, the annual average temperature increases by 1.19℃, the anomaly percentage in annual average precipitation increases by 5.78%, the average accumulated temperature increases by 247.1℃·d, and the length of the growing season extends by 7.0 days.The temperature, accumulated temperature, and the length of the growing season increase significantly under the warming condition of 2℃compared with that under the warming condition of 1.5℃.However, annual and seasonal precipitation generally decreases, and the annual precipitation anomaly decreases by 1.96%.Under the two warming scenarios, extreme high-temperature events increase significantly, extremely low-temperature events decrease significantly, and extreme precipitation events generally increase.The number of frost and freezing days decreases significantly, and the duration of heatwaves increases significantly.In the future, precipitation extremes in Northeast China will increase.Not only will the magnitude of a single precipitation process increase, but the magnitude of the extreme precipitation process also increases significantly.With the increase of the temperature threshold, intensity of the extreme precipitation will also gradually increase.

Key words: Regional climate model, Northeast region, Warming scenario, Extreme climate events

CLC Number: