大连地区ECMWF细网格10 m风场与观测实况对比与检验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.01.010

Abstract

Abstract:

The 10-m wind data of European Center for Medium-Range Weather (ECMWF)fine mesh grid from January of 2016 to December of 2018 were evaluated using various observations from 8 national meteorological observation stations in Dalian.The results indicated that the 10 m wind forecast of ECMWF fine mesh grid is the closest to the maximum wind speed, and has the best correlation with the maximum instantaneous wind speed.The whole forecast results of ECMWF 10 m wind speed for eight stations in Dalian are relatively larger on average.From the error statistical analysis between ECMWF 10 m wind forecast data and its corresponding maximum wind speed, the results showed that forecast is closest to the observation when the wind is at level 3, larger than observations when the wind is below level 3, and smaller than that when the wind is above level 3 by the classification of the observation data from the mean error (ME) of wind speed.The wind speed errors of different directions are also obvious, but smaller than those of different wind scales.Mean absolute error (MAE) is the smallest when the wind is between levels 2 and 3.There is no significant difference in ME during all the forecast times, which is mainly between 0.1-0.3 m·s^-1.But MAE increases slowly with the extension of forecast time.The wind speed errors had obvious diurnal variations, which show the characteristics of small in the day and large at night, the smallest in the afternoon, and the largest after midnight.They also vary at different stations, wind levels, and wind directions.

Key words: Maximum wind, Mode verification, Diurnal variation

CLC Number:

P425

Jing-tai YANG,Yu-xiu SUI,Jian XIAO,Li-na WANG,Hui-lin CHANG,Xiao-dong WU,Yan WANG. Comparison and verification of 10-m wind field based on ECMWF fine grid and observations in Dalian[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(1): 73-81.

Figures/Tables 11

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Table 1

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Fig.3

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Table 7

References 24

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名称	含义和算法	类别
瞬时风速	风速每秒采样1次，正点前3 s的平均值	阵风
2 min平均风速	风速每秒采样1次，正点前120 s的平均值	平均风
10 min平均风速	风速每秒采样1次，先求出以1 s为步长，每1 min的平均值，然后再以1 min为步长，求正点前10 min的平均值	平均风
极大风速	正点前1 h内的最大瞬时风速	阵风
最大风速	正点前1 h的最大10 min平均风速	平均风

类别		00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120
	ME	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2
瞬时风速	MAE	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9
	r	0.711	0.693	0.671	0.654	0.641	0.622	0.610	0.591	0.566	0.527	0.509
	ME	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
2 min平均风速	MAE	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.8
	r	0.681	0.663	0.642	0.625	0.613	0.594	0.584	0.566	0.541	0.503	0.487
	ME	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
10 min平均风速	MAE	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.8
	r	0.698	0.679	0.657	0.640	0.628	0.609	0.598	0.579	0.554	0.515	0.499
	ME	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
极大风速	MAE	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.7
	r	0.756	0.739	0.718	0.700	0.685	0.667	0.657	0.635	0.610	0.567	0.550
	ME	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
最大风速	MAE	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.6
	r	0.711	0.694	0.673	0.656	0.642	0.624	0.617	0.595	0.57	0.531	0.514

类别		132	144	156	168	180	192	204	216	228	240
	ME	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	0.1
瞬时风速	MAE	2	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.3
	r	0.479	0.440	0.401	0.368	0.323	0.299	0.270	0.245	0.241	0.211
	ME	0.9	0.9	0.9	1	1	1	0.9	0.9	0.9	1.1
2 min平均风速	MAE	1.8	1.9	1.9	2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
	r	0.456	0.420	0.383	0.351	0.307	0.284	0.256	0.233	0.228	0.199
	ME	0.9	1	1	1	1	1	0.9	0.9	0.9	1.1
10 min平均风速	MAE	1.8	1.9	1.9	2	2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
	r	0.469	0.431	0.393	0.360	0.314	0.289	0.262	0.238	0.234	0.203
	ME	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2.1	-2	-1.6
极大风速	MAE	2.8	2.8	2.9	2.9	3	3	3.1	3.1	3.1	2.9
	r	0.518	0.478	0.434	0.403	0.352	0.324	0.287	0.263	0.258	0.224
	ME	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4
最大风速	MAE	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	2	2	2	2
	r	0.483	0.445	0.405	0.376	0.329	0.304	0.270	0.249	0.244	0.207

类别	1级	2级	3级	4级	5级	6级	7级	8级	9级	10级	11级
瞬时风速	0.12	0.192	0.18	0.213	0.243	0.215	0.091^*	0.211^*	-0.305^*	-	-
2 min平均风速	0.17	0.235	0.228	0.249	0.226	0.219	0.242^*	-0.267^*	-	-	-
10 min平均风速	0.181	0.241	0.232	0.248	0.207	0.266	0.121^*	-	-	-	-
极大风速	0.006^*	0.177	0.155	0.208	0.251	0.229	0.195	0.166	0.3^*	0.032^*	-0.126^*
最大风速	0.081	0.234	0.246	0.281	0.214	0.229	0.45	-0.817^*	-	-	-

风向	1级	2级	3级	4级	5级	6级	7级	8级
N	1.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	-0.8	-2.7	-4.7	-
NE	1.1	0.7	0.3	-0.4	-1.2	-2.4	-3.5	-
E	1	0.3	-0.6	-1.9	-2.7	-2.9	-	-
SE	1.1	0.5	-0.5	-1.4	-2.8	-4.6	-	-
S	1.2	0.8	0	-0.5	-1.2	-1	-	-
SW	1.2	0.8	0	-0.9	-2.2	-4	-	-
W	1.2	0.7	-0.3	-1.2	-2.3	-2.8	-3.3	-
NW	1	0.6	-0.2	-1.2	-1.9	-1.9	-2.4	-5.5
平均差	1.2	0.7	-0.1	-0.7	-1.5	-2.6	-3.6	-5.5

站点	北风	东北风	东风	东南风	南风	西南风	西风	西北风
大连	0.6	1.1	1.2	1.1	0.6	0.8	1.8	1.2
旅顺	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.5	1	0.8	-0.2	0.5
金州	-1.1	-0.6	-1	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	0.4	-0.7
长海	1.6	1.1	1.5	1.1	0.9	0.8	1.4	2.2
瓦房店	-0.3	0	0.2	-0.4	0.1	0.3	-0.9	-1.1
普兰店	0.4	0.7	-0.5	-0.4	0.2	-0.7	-0.7	-0.5
庄河	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.0
长兴岛	-0.1	-0.6	-0.4	-1.1	-1.1	-0.8	-0.1	0.4
平均	0.4	0.4	-0.1	-0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

Comparison and verification of 10-m wind field based on ECMWF fine grid and observations in Dalian

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起报时次	误差类型	00	12	24	36	48	60	72	84	96	108	120
08	ME	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0	0	0.1	0	0.1
20	ME	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3
08	MAE	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.7
20	MAE	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5

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