主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

Journal of Meteorology and Environment ›› 2021, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 65-72.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.009

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Projection of climate change over Centre China by high-resolution simulation data under RCP4.5 scenario

Miao WANG(),Min LIU,Yong-jian REN   

  1. Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2020-03-31 Online:2021-06-30 Published:1900-01-01

Abstract:

Based on the data from the high-resolution RegCM4.4 (Regional Climate Model version 4.4) and the daily meteorological observations from 1986-2005, the climate change in the future in Central China was estimated under the temperature rising threshold of 1.5℃ and 2℃.The model simulation performance was tested.The results show that the simulation results can accurately reflect the annual variation and spatial distribution characteristics of regional air temperature and precipitation.Compared with the observed values, the simulated values of temperature are lower and the simulated values of precipitation are larger.Compared with 1986-2005, under the future RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario, the increase of air temperature in Central China during 2020-2098 is 2.1℃, and the increasing trend is 0.3℃/10 a, while the precipitation trend has no significant change.The long-term (2080-2098) temperature will rise by 2.88℃, and the precipitation will increase by 7.58%, which are both higher than the recent (2020-2035) and medium-term (2046-2065) 1.5℃ temperature rise scenarios in Central China, where the temperature will rise by 1.22℃, and the precipitation will increase by 1.93%.Under the 2℃ temperature rise scenario, the temperature in Central China increases by 1.36℃, and the precipitation increases by 3.57%.

Key words: High-resolution regional model, Temperature increasing scenario, Projection

CLC Number: