吉林省高速公路交通事故与气象要素的关系研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.013

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily traffic accident data of 27 major highways in Jilin province from 2009 to 2019, combined with the observational data of 24 national meteorological stations in Jilin province corresponding to the accident points of the highways, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of highway traffic accidents and their relationships with meteorological elements were analyzed and studied using the k-mean cluster, data standardization, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and accident ratio methods from SPSS software.The results show that the accidents were the most in winter, followed by summer, fewer in spring and autumn.The highway accidents were basically divided into four grades i.e.high risk, second high risk, medium risk, and low risk.Specifically, the central region was the high-risk area, and the northern region was the low-risk area, and the most accidents occurred in the area from Changchun to Jiaohe and the eastern part of Yanbian on the Huiwu line.Meteorological elements including rain, overcast, and snow were the main causes of traffic accidents.Only considering the influence of a single factor, rainfall and snowfall were positively related to the traffic accidents.Visibility was able to be adopted to quantify the influence of overcast on highway traffic safety and was the most important influence factor on traffic accidents when it was below 50 meters, especially under the wind force of level 6 or above.

Key words: Expressway, Safe-travel, Meteorological factors, Rank

CLC Number:

Yun-feng LI, Yong XIE, Shun-mei JIN, Ye-jun LIU. Study on relationships between highway traffic accidents and meteorological factors in Jilin province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(3): 94-101.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 19

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天气现象	事故比/(%)	提取交通事故研究样本(n=8253)(列数据为该季节的事故率)
天气现象	事故比/(%)	春季(n=710)	夏季(n=1491)	秋季(n=925)	冬季(n=5127)
阴	25.85	286	619	365	863
雪	49.67	94	0	152	3853
霾	0.01	1	0	0	0
雾	2.71	16	37	39	132
大风	0.39	17	2	2	11
雨	21.17	284	830	366	267
沙尘	0.13	8	2	1	0
冰雹	0.07	4	1	0	1
事故比/(%)		8.6	18.07	11.21	62.12

天气现象	提取交通事故研究样本(n=8253)
天气现象	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
阴	123	108	112	162	124	149	193	277	144	221	305	215
雪	704	1150	423	92	2	0	0	0	0	152	858	718
霾	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
雾	46	10	10	14	2	7	9	21	14	25	48	18
大风	0	0	3	11	6	1	1	0	0	2	8	0
雨	12	40	17	104	180	215	237	378	178	188	164	34
沙尘	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	0
冰雹	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
事故比/(%)	10.72	15.85	6.86	4.73	3.88	4.53	5.33	8.20	4.07	7.14	16.76	11.94

降水级别	事故数/起	降雨日站点数	事故比/(%)
小雨	1181	19069	6.19
中雨	312	1619	19.27
大雨及以上	254	860	29.53

降雪级别	事故数/起	降雪日站点数	事故比/(%)
小雪	2771	10831	25.58
中雪	732	2019	36.25
大雪及以上	596	1279	46.6

能见度/m	事故数/起	站点数/站	事故比/(%)
≥200	44	649	6.78
100—200	10	79	12.66
50—100	8	35	22.86
0—50	4	13	30.77

Study on relationships between highway traffic accidents and meteorological factors in Jilin province

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等级	1	2	3	4
降雨量	大雨及以上	中雨	小雨	无降雨
降雪量	大雪及以上	中雪	小雪	无降雪
能见度/m	0—50	50—100	100—200	>200
风力/级	风力≥6		风力＜6
影响程度	极易引起事故	易引起事故	较易引起事故	不易引起事故

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