Abstract:

Using 86 typhoon cases that affected Guangxi with relatively complete disaster records from 1981 to 2018, the typhoon disaster was classified and the disaster causing factors were selected based on the number of casualties and direct economic losses.The assessment model of the typhoon disaster in Guangxi was established by combining genetic algorithm and neural network.The results show that there is a significant correlation between the selected disaster factors and the typhoon disaster grades.The genetic-neural network ensemble prediction model which is constructed has a good effect on the typhoon disaster prediction.The fitting consistency rate of training samples is 86.1%, and the prediction accuracy of test samples is 71.4%.Among them, the prediction results of severe and heavy typhoon disaster grades are generally consistent with the actual situation, and the prediction accuracy of lighter grades is 83.3%.

Key words: Typhoon disaster, Pre-assessment, Genetic-neural network method, Artificial intelligence