基于BCC-CSM2-MR模式CMIP6试验的辽河流域气温降水模拟与预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.04.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Sixth (CMIP6) carried out by the medium resolution climate model BCC-CSM-MR from National Climate Center, we first evaluated the simulation capability of the model using the data from 80 meteorological stations in the Liaohe River Basin.Then we analyzed the trends of temperature and precipitation under the Shared Social-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in the future.The results show that the model can well simulate the monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of temperature and precipitation.The simulated temperature is lower than the observations, while the simulated precipitation is slightly overestimated.The simulation performances of temperature are significantly better in autumn and winter than in summer and spring, and those of precipitation are better in summer than in other seasons.The model well reproduces the zonal temperature variations of high in the south and low in the north, and the spatial variations of precipitation gradually decrease from southeast to northwest.The model also simulates well the location of the warm and cold center in the Liaohe River Basin, and the simulated areas with less precipitation are located in the sparse water system areas.Compared with the base period (1995-2014), the temperature and precipitation in the Liaohe River Basin will generally increase in the future, and the increase in various future scenarios from high to low is average minimum temperature, average temperature, and average maximum temperature, respectively.The temperature increase appears more significant in winter and spring, whereas the precipitation increase appears more significant in summer.With the increase in emission scenario, the average temperature and average minimum/maximum temperature increase continuously, and the significant warming areas are concentrated in the northeast of Liaohe River Basin.Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the increase in precipitation is estimated to decrease from southwest to northeast, and the area with a large precipitation increase is located in the west of Liaoning province.Under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the increase in precipitation presents a meridional distribution with gradual decreases from west to east, and the significant precipitation increase areas are located in Inner Mongolia and western Liaoning province in the upper reaches of the Liaohe River Basin.

Key words: Liaohe River Basin, Amplification of temperature, Amplification of precipitation

CLC Number:

P467

Qing-fei ZHAI, Feng-hua SUN, Xue AO, Shu-jiang GENG, Cheng-long LI, Yao LI, Ming-yu LI. Evaluation and projection of temperature and precipitation change in the Liaohe River Basin based on BCC-CSM2-MR model CMIP6 test[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(4): 27-36.

Figures/Tables 9

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Table 1

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References 28

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气象要素	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
模拟平均气温/℃	5.88(-1.54)	6.24(-1.93)	20.71(-1.80)	7.27(-1.05)	-10.71(-0.82)
观测平均气温/℃	7.42	8.17	22.51	8.32	-9.89
模拟平均最高气温/℃	11.46(-1.73)	11.90(-2.77)	26.20(-1.37)	13.07(-0.93)	-5.04(-1.15)
观测平均最高气温/℃	13.19	14.67	27.57	14.00	-3.89
模拟平均最低气温/℃	0.79(-0.80)	0.77(-1.53)	16.33(-0.69)	2.49(-0.03)	-15.87(-0.63)
观测平均最低气温/℃	1.59	2.30	17.02	2.52	-15.24
模拟降水/mm	586.17(52.17)	122.24(42.01)	344.64(-6.76)	91.59(4.21)	23.25(4.11)
观测降水/mm	534.00	80.23	351.40	87.38	19.14

模式	平均气温增幅/℃					降水量增幅/(%)
模式	年	春	夏	秋	冬	年	春	夏	秋	冬
SSP1-2.6(2015—2040年)	0.91	1.04	0.77	0.48	0.71	3.09	-1.04	7.91	6.63	-5.44
SSP1-2.6(2041—2070年)	1.50	1.46	1.31	1.15	1.36	7.19	8.22	16.93	8.59	-3.07
SSP1-2.6(2071—2100年)	1.80	1.89	1.07	1.49	2.46	19.27	6.89	32.12	6.39	-1.00
SSP2-4.5(2015—2040年)	1.17	0.88	0.84	1.00	1.43	3.38	4.60	9.81	-11.12	-7.24
SSP2-4.5(2041—2070年)	2.34	2.16	1.82	2.01	2.66	14.26	0.36	30.49	10.36	-4.86
SSP2-4.5(2071—2100年)	2.96	2.78	2.26	2.54	3.89	22.45	6.58	33.35	25.87	-8.22
SSP3-7.0(2015—2040年)	0.82	0.87	0.56	0.51	0.64	6.71	-4.53	16.27	1.43	-8.41
SSP3-7.0(2041—2070年)	2.45	2.28	2.12	2.28	2.69	15.82	13.07	27.63	8.08	-0.33
SSP3-7.0(2071—2100年)	4.65	3.86	4.33	4.40	5.44	17.02	6.06	28.53	5.28	-1.27
SSP5-85(2015—2040年)	1.44	1.37	0.93	1.30	1.70	-0.93	-0.16	4.91	-14.21	-9.66
SSP5-85(2041—2070年)	3.06	2.91	2.69	2.78	3.11	28.66	10.16	41.76	20.47	11.52
SSP5-85(2071—2100年)	4.87	3.92	4.83	5.58	5.60	41.52	24.14	61.60	22.44	-5.39

模式	平均最高气温增幅/℃					平均最低气温增幅/℃
模式	年	春	夏	秋	冬	年	春	夏	秋	冬
SSP1-2.6(2015—2040年)	0.79	0.98	1.20	0.23	0.44	0.94	1.11	0.66	0.40	0.73
SSP1-2.6(2041—2070年)	1.71	1.73	1.76	1.44	1.44	1.88	1.84	1.12	1.58	1.95
SSP1-2.6(2071—2100年)	1.94	2.20	1.37	1.79	2.27	2.30	2.28	1.15	1.94	3.40
SSP2-4.5(2015—2040年)	1.08	1.14	1.02	0.79	1.28	1.19	1.22	0.78	0.83	1.34
SSP2-4.5(2041—2070年)	2.23	2.36	1.69	2.05	2.51	2.82	2.51	1.82	2.45	3.54
SSP2-4.5(2071—2100年)	2.90	2.84	2.07	2.36	3.77	3.42	2.98	2.23	2.91	4.23
SSP3-7.0(2015—2040年)	0.81	0.85	0.59	0.57	0.68	0.84	0.88	0.61	0.49	0.53
SSP3-7.0(2041—2070年)	2.36	2.47	1.96	2.30	2.57	2.92	2.62	2.09	2.71	3.40
SSP3-7.0(2071—2100年)	4.52	3.95	3.69	4.27	5.08	5.19	4.13	4.08	4.81	7.09
SSP5-85(2015—2040年)	1.27	1.20	0.73	1.01	1.53	1.38	1.31	0.84	1.09	1.59
SSP5-85(2041—2070年)	2.89	2.78	2.46	2.71	3.10	3.66	3.29	2.79	3.39	4.16
SSP5-85(2071—2100年)	4.80	3.89	4.23	5.11	5.47	5.52	4.32	4.71	5.20	7.26

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Evaluation and projection of temperature and precipitation change in the Liaohe River Basin based on BCC-CSM2-MR model CMIP6 test

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