台风“巴威”不同类型降水多模式预报与空间检验对比评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.04.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Typhoon Bavi (2008) is the first one to affect Liaoning province at a typhoon level in history and resulted in a persistent precipitation event over wide regions.In this study, the methods of traditional verification and object-based diagnosis evaluation (MODE) were used to evaluate the multi-model (ECMWF, CMA_MESO 10KM, CMA_MESO 3km and RMAPS-Dongbei) forecasts for different types of precipitation during Typhoon Bavi.The result indicated that convective precipitation and stable precipitation occur in Liaoning province due to Bavi's remote and own effects.The evaluation results from traditional verification and the MODE showed that the multi-model forecast performance for convective precipitation is better than that for stable precipitation.This is probably due to a large deviation in forecast intensity of influencing systems related to stable precipitation when the typhoon moves northward and becomes weakened.In the future, more attention should be paid to the impact of forecast deviation of typhoon intensity on stable precipitation.According to the traditional verification, the CMA_MESO 3km and ECMWF models have higher scores, with the best performance on the shape, extent, centroid distance, and intersection area of convective precipitation bands.The ECMWF model also has a high target similarity score for stable precipitation.Although the RMAPS-Dongbei model has a low threat score (TS) mainly due to the high false alarm rate and detection failure ratio for precipitation above 10.0 mm, the center position, precipitation intensity, and areas of heavy precipitation belts predicted by this model are close to the observations based on the MODE results.The RMAPS-Dongbei model has a higher target similarity score, which reaches 1.00 during the convective-precipitation stage and can provide a good reference for the prediction of convective precipitation.

Key words: Typhoon precipitation, The method of object-based diagnosis evaluation (MODE), Forecast verification, Convective precipitation, Stable precipitation

CLC Number:

P457.6

Dong-dong WANG, Li SUN, Lei YANG, Li-du SHEN, Shu WANG, Yu CHEN. Multi-model comparison and evaluation of forecast statistics and spatial verification for different precipitation types caused by Typhoon Bavi[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(4): 37-46.

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检验指标	公式	参数说明
TS	$T S=\frac{a}{a+b+c}$	a为命中的站数；b为空报站数；c为漏报站数；d为正确否定(无降水预报正确)站数。TS又称临界成功指数(CSI)，为模式有效预报的准确程度，数值越大说明模式预报能力越强，取值范围[0, 1]
FAR	$F A R=\frac{b}{a+b}$	空报率为空报站数与预报站数的比值，取值范围[0, 1]
POD	$P O D=\frac{c}{a+c}$	漏报率为预报漏报站数与实际降水站数的比值，取值范围[0, 1]

项目	第一阶段	第二阶段
主要降水时段	2020年8月26日12:00—18:00	2020年8月27日00:00—06:00
持续时间	6 h	6 h
最大过程降水量	海城市高坉镇，145 mm	岫岩县大营子镇，43 mm
最大小时雨强	72 mm·h^-1，海城市高坉镇，2020年8月26日16:00—17:00	23 mm·h^-1，抚顺县峡河乡，2020年8月27日02:00—03:00
降水站点个数/小时降水量超过20 mm站次	1147/98	1183/2

检验属性	CMA_MESO 10KM	CMA_MESO 3km	ECMWF	睿图东北模式
质心距离	21.30	3.64	7.47	4.94
质心纬度/经度差	-0.99/0.39	-0.02/-0.18	-0.35/-0.13	-0.11/0.22
轴角差	44.01	16.82	6.97	19.72
交集面积	1695	3465	2693	2379
面积比	0.58	1.55	0.83	0.98
中位强度比	1.05	1.32	0.78	1.18
目标相似度	0.85	0.91	0.99	1.00

检验属性	CMA_MESO 10KM	CMA_MESO 3km	ECMWF	睿图东北模式
质心距离	34.99	35.03	19.96	29.24
质心纬度/经度差	-0.14/-1.74	-0.12/-1.75	-0.99/0.08	-0.38/-1.41
轴角差	23.23	13.00	31.18	15.18
交集面积	5910	6016	5331	4729
面积比	1.64	1.53	0.94	1.18
中位强度比	1.31	1.39	1.60	1.20
目标相似度	0.85	0.85	0.92	0.95

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Multi-model comparison and evaluation of forecast statistics and spatial verification for different precipitation types caused by Typhoon Bavi

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