基于WRF模式分析高垂直分辨率对环渤海辐射雾模拟的适用性研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.05.005

Abstract

Abstract:

It is generally believed that a high vertical resolution numerical weather prediction model can improve the prediction ability of the fog formation stage, but there is much debate on whether the simulation ability of the fog development and disappearance stage can be improved.To explore the applicability of a high vertical resolution model for radiation fog simulation in the Bohai Sea Rim, three test indexes including probality of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and equitable threat score (ETS) were used to evaluate the simulation effect of different vertical resolution models for different stages of radiation fog process in the Bohai Sea Rim.The results show that setting a higher vertical resolution in the upper layer of the model has little effect on fog simulation, while setting a higher vertical resolution in the lower layer can generally improve the simulation ability of fog formation time, fog duration, and fog layer thickness, but the simulation of fog region highly depends on the fog distribution pattern.For the scattered and non-uniform fog process, the high vertical resolution model seems to improve the POD, but it is accompanied by the increase of FAR and the decrease of ETS.For the uniformly distributed fog process, the high vertical resolution model can improve all the test indexes simultaneously, and effectively improve the prediction of such type of fog process.

Key words: The Bohai Sea Rim, Radiation fog, High vertical resolution, WRF (weather research and forecast)

CLC Number:

P426.4⁺1

Yunchen LIAO,Bingui WU,Tingting JU,Meng TIAN,Yinghua LI,Shupeng SUN,Jialin ZHANG,Jianbo YANG. Research on the applicability of high vertical resolution on radiation fog simulation around the Bohai Sea based on the WRF model[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(5): 34-43.

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个例	模拟初始时间	雾第1时段	雾第2时段
个例1	2016年12月18日08时	2016年12月18日20时至19日08时	2016年12月19日20时至20日08时
个例2	2019年1月11日08时	2019年1月11日20时至12日10时	2019年1月12日20时至13日08时
个例3	2019年2月18日20时	2019年2月18日21时至19日10时	2019年2月19日22时至20日08时

试验组	HR			LR
试验组	POD	FAR	ETS	POD	FAR	ETS
第1阶段	0.190	0.756	-0.006	0.106	0.724	0.006
第2阶段	0.596	0.394	0.138	0.173	0.557	0.106

统计评分时段		HR	MR	LR
	第1阶段	0.274(0.109)	0.254(0.089)	0.165
POD	第2阶段	0.647(0.507)	0.508(0.368)	0.140
	全时段	0.342(0.226)	0.284(0.168)	0.116
	第1阶段	0.675(0.115)	0.675(0.115)	0.560
FAR	第2阶段	0.319(-0.221)	0.361(-0.179)	0.540
	全时段	0.482(-0.065)	0.521(-0.026)	0.547
	第1阶段	-0.012(-0.041)	-0.016(-0.045)	0.029
ETS	第2阶段	0.163(0.166)	0.100(0.103)	-0.003
	全时段	0.051(0.042)	0.028(0.019)	0.009

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Research on the applicability of high vertical resolution on radiation fog simulation around the Bohai Sea based on the WRF model

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