时空投影模型在东北夏季降水延伸期预报中的应用和检验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.01.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR ((National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)) atmospheric reanalysis data in Northeast China from 1979 to 2021, the historical rule of low-frequency precipitation in summer in Northeast China was analyzed using rotating empirical orthogonal function decomposition and ensemble empirical mode decomposition, combined with low-frequency precipitation and its related atmospheric intra-seasonal oscillation.A spatiotemporal projection model (STPM) was used to forecast the extended period of low frequency precipitation. The results show that there are obvious regional differences of low frequency precipitation in Northeast China, and the period of low frequency precipitation in different regions has obvious inter-annual variation, with the period of 10~40 days as the main and 40~80 days as the secondary. The key signals of low-frequency precipitation forecast from 10 to 40 days are tropical atmospheric intra-seasonal oscillation, Eurasian teleconnection, low-frequency wave train of Silk Road teleconnection and zonal wind field near the western Pacific Ocean. The low-frequency precipitation forecast signals from 40 to 80 days mainly come from the factor fields around Northeast China. The experiment on the extension period of the low-frequency precipitation of different frequency bands in Northeast China shows that the forecast ability decreases with the increase of advance forecast time. The predicted validity of low-frequency precipitation for 10~40 days is 10 days. The low frequency precipitation of 40~80 days shows a high forecasting skill, and the forecasting validity can reach about 30 days.

Key words: Extended-range forecast, Low-frequency precipitation, Intraseasonal oscillations

CLC Number:

P456.2

Xiaoxuan SU,Xiaowei SUN,Chenhe ZHANG,Jia-qi LI,Zengxin LU,Xu YANG. Application and verification of the spatiotemporal projection model in the extended-range forecast of summer precipitation in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(1): 27-36.

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References 20

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区域	10~40 d预报关键区
1	OLR 10°S~20°N, 90°~130°E	U850 10°~60°N, 110°E ~180°
2	H200 50°~70°N, 40°E ~180°	OLR 30°~50°N, 110°~160°E
3	H200 20°~40°N, 110°~140°E	U200 10°~50°N, 110°~160°E
4	OLR 10°S~10°N, 100°~170°E	U850 15°~55°N, 100°~160°E

区域	40~80 d预报关键区
1	H200 30°~50°N, 90°E~180°	OLR 10°~60°N, 110°E~10°W	U200 10°~60°N, 100°E~10°W
2	H200 10°~70°N, 90°E~180°	U200 25°~75°N, 40°E~180°	shum700 50°~70°N, 90°E~180°
3	H200 10°~50°N, 40°E~20°W	U200 10°~50°N, 50°~150°E	OLR 0°~20°N, 50°~80°E
4	OLR 30°~60°N, 110°E~10°W	U200 10°~60°N, 110°~180°E	shum700 30°~70°N, 120°~170°E

Application and verification of the spatiotemporal projection model in the extended-range forecast of summer precipitation in Northeast China

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