Abstract: Based on the forecast field from the T639 numerical model and observational wind data, some indexes such as I_W and other convective indexes were computed. A method for strong wind forecast during the summer half year was established in Huaibei, and the forecast results in 2011 were examined. The results show that quantitative and qualitative wind prediction is achieved during the summer half year based on I_W index from the T639 numerical model and some other indexes. Combining the various indexes and the simulated value from the T639 model, if three indexes are satisfied among four indexes, the strong wind will appear in Huaibei, otherwise it will not occur. Forecasted wind speed by I_W index is relatively close to observational maximum wind speed. The two methods are indicative to strong wind forecast in Huaibei. Most strong wind weather could be forecasted accurately, while the false alarm is significant and the missing forecast is not significant.

Key words: font-family: "Times New Roman", mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, mso-bidi-language: AR-SA, Strong wind prediction')">mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">Strong wind prediction, I_W index')">I_W index, Effect examine, MICAPS form