Abstract:

Based on daily precipitation data, rainstorm disaster data, annual GDP data and population data from 1961 to 2012 in Jilin province, a heavy rainstorm process index and a disaster loss index were established by a grey correlative degree analysis method. The influence factors of loss caused by the heavy rainstorm process were discussed using a correlation analysis method. A loss evaluation model of heavy rainstorm was established by a multivariate regression method, and its fitting and evaluate test were carried out. The results show that losses caused by the heavy rainstorm process in Jilin province have significant correlations with rainfall during the previous 7 days of the heavy rain and the heavy rainstorm process index. The above two factors are used to establish a loss evaluation model of heavy rain, and it has better effect of fitting and evaluation test. Thus, this model can be applied in operational business. The evaluation factors could be obtained before a heavy rain occurs, so disaster loss could be predicted in advance, which is important for operational business.

Key words: Heavy rainstorm process, Impact loss, Evaluation model