Abstract:

With global warming, how to control high temperature and heat wave events will be one of the difficult problems that modern cities have to consider. An analysis of simulated distribution of the present (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) high temperature heat wave events by three runs from a regional model (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies, PRECIS) in China under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario was presented. The results indicate that PRECIS could simulate better the frequency, intensity and duration of the high temperature and heat wave events as well as corresponding atmospheric circulation for the basic period (1961-1990). Compared with those of the basic period, intensity of high temperature and heat wave events will rise, and increasing amplitude of its frequency will exceed 100% and its duration will increase by 30% or above. Also, observed and simulated results suggest that high temperature and heat wave events have a close relation to positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height field over Wuhan and Harbin regions. Under future scenario, positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height field will be in a increasing trend in the above two regions, and it suggests that it will probably be more serious high temperature and heat wave events in these regions.

Key words: High temperature heat wave, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), SRES A2 scenario